The $250 Million Mega Fight – Should We?
It’s here, the fight the world has waited years for, the fight we all thought would never happen… It is now only hours away.
Betting interest is huge in the fight – recreational gamblers who would prefer to enjoy the bout with a financial interest, will be looking to the props, method of victory, the round in which the fight stops, and so on. Many will take Pacman on the moneyline, with an emotional interest in seeing a favourable result – Floyd Mayweather on his ass, or flat on his back being counted out.
Freddy Roach says he has a strategy for Mayweather, and no doubt he does, and he needs to say this for the fight to have the drive it needs. Manny meanwhile says he is confident of victory and can see himself executing his fight plan – all good again for the fight’s theatre.
This does not mean the plan will work however. It also does not mean that the emotional interest of the public in “Money Mayweather” getting is ass kicked is going to have any bearing on the result being favourable towards that outcome.
Cos the plain truth is – Floyd will dominate tonight. Keeping it straightforward and taking May for the win and seeing the -150 (1.66) priced up has to be seriously considered.
Floyd is a flawless technician with a solid defence, and fantastic boxing nous. He is a brilliant in fight strategist, and has many physical advantages over Manny he can exploit. We see good value in a price at 1.70 (-142) or more, but doubt it will get to that and is where we want to play given that it is boxing, a sport great at inventing ways for screwing the bettor over. At 1.70 is would be worth having your minimum on it. At 1.66 (-150) this “anything can happen” random risk is not worth assuming and wouldn’t advise anyone to play it for anything significant.
Floyd wins handily, but with $250 Million on the line… well, who wouldn’t be a little distracted? There is always some unassessble risk with boxing, and you need a little premium on the price you take to balance that.
Enjoy the fight all.