Four games made up week one finals on the 2012 AFL season, we took one shot at the Adelaide game, and along with a great many professional and amateur punters alike, got burned on that one. The big upset of the round : Geelong were knocked out of the finals race by a Fremantle side that were sensational – winning the ball and hitting Pavlich on the chest with it. They have the commitment to the gameplan coupled with ability, that could take them far in the coming years under Ross Lyon. Hawthorn won over Collingwood as was to be expected, and North Melbourne were outclassed and killed off pretty unceremoniously by West Coast.
Friday 7th September Collingwood [$3.60, +22.5 @ 1.91] were no match for Hawthorn [$1.30, -22.5 @ 1.91] in structure and intensity on a cold Friday night. Line was an early +/-20.5, with a late line of +/-19.5 indicating a little bit of speccing at the Collingwood line as the weather threatened. Time in attack stats for Collingwood has been poor in 2012 when compared to previous years, and they are not able to control and pressure teams when emerging from defense. Missing Leon Davis. Hawthorn now odds-on for the flag, and rightly so.
Saturday 8th September Adelaide [$1.58, -9.5 @ 1.91] were warming favourites against Sydney [$2.45, +9.5 @ 1.91] over in Adelaide, but failed to perform at all. Sanderson coached poorly, and the Crows were all at sea for major portions of the game. Not to take away from Sydney, but the Adelaide coaching staff didn’t respond well to Sydneys set up, and forward entries were abysmal. We took the Crows -8.5 investing 32.5 to win 30 units, and Adelaide to win 40+ points, investing 9.5 to win 40 units.
Saturday 8th September Geelong [$1.28, -22.5 @ 1.91] hosted Fremantle [$3.85, +22.5 @ 1.91] at the MCG in what was the upset of the round. Regardless of how far behind the Cats slipped, the AFL betting moved from an early line of +/-21.5 through to Geelong -22.5 @ 1.943 vs Fremantle +22.5 @ 1.962 through some late Geelong support. Coming back from an unbelievable 5.7.37 vs 0.1.1 quarter time scoreline, the Cats showed characteristic fightback. Fremantle win by 16 and go to next week, and Pavlich finished with 6 goals.
Favourites went 2 – 2 against the bookmaker’s handicap line. (Now 105 – 96 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up twice.
At professionalgambler for finals week 1, we had two positions, finishing 0 – 2 for -42 units, sending our 2012 AFL only season record to 31-38, for -19.5 units.
Investing in sports betting markets daily when our systems say so: 2008: +176.5%, | 2009: +8.6%, | 2010: +46.85%, | 2011: +78.10% | 2012 : in progress |
Feel free to email us for a free, no-obligation 2 week trial, or with any questions.
email: drsportgambler @ gmail.com
follow live on twitter: https://twitter.com/progamblercomau