Here we are with the first week of the AFL Finals for 2012. The climax of the season, and approaching the end of 2012 AFL betting. Football sports investment is not over however – AFL finals lead in nicely to NCAAF/NFL which finishes off our investment year with the superbowl in February 2013.
Still some good betting to be had in 2012 AFL, although we would be the first to admit our season has been average, with our funds sitting around break-even at this stage of 2012. Not every year is a bumper one. Looking for some rewards for our hard work in the final few aussie rules games of 2012.
Statistically, the Hawks are firing on all cylinders, and the mid-season prices of 6 and 7s bandied about for a Hawthorn premiership now seem like gigantic overs. Scoring heavily and blowing away good teams have been a hallmark of their 2012 season. They have been the most consistent offensive team, with a defensive set-up that powers their attacks through the usual suspects in defense of Gibson, Guerra (although out) and their accuracy by foot. Coming up against the 2012 grand finalists, our work showed that Collingwood were over-valued in their 2011 finals campaign, although they need to be respected here in early finals. Not looking to lay 21 points on a blustery and possibly wet Friday final. Likely pass on this.
Adelaide host the Swans, this week, and we will be taking Adelaide most likely as our largest AFL sports investment of the weekend. Hard at it, fully fit and at home, with a host of statistics in support of their ability to own teams at AAMI stadium, they will be hard to pass up. Sydney were off the boil slightly last week, and will need to find an avenue to goal to match it with the Crows, who we see scoring heavily. Adelaide are only 8.5 point home favourites. The bookmakers have kept the Swans safe here, after undervaluing them all year leaving them at 14-8 ATS thus far in 2012. Adelaide have an average winning margin of 35 points at home, with sizeable victories over Geelong and West Coast. Taylor Walker – if he can light it up as he is threatening to – and then the Crows shall run away with it.
The Cats face the 2012 ATS darlings Fremantle in what will be a cold and blustery encounter at the MCG.. and they will love it. Chapman, Hawkins, Bartel the list of the Geelong guns that are up and running makes great viewing. This year may be a year too early for the Dockers, but they have been fantastic in late 2012 under Ross Lyon, and great for dedicated sports betting followers. Fremantle are 13 – 9 ATS in 2012, but more importantly – reflecting their performances late 2012 – are 9 -1 ATS over their past 10 games. Still considering here.
West Coast at home, means you have a large line to contend with this week if you want to take the Eagles minus points with the bookmakers. Some support at the -26.5 already for the Eagles. West Coast were admirable against the best team in the competition last week. North have been moderate these past two weeks, and will appreciate a re-invigoration via finals football. West Coast are such a strong team at home, numbers easily indicate this. A relatively quiet Naitanui last week – will we see some finals magic? (edit – line to -28.5).
Investing in sports betting markets daily when our systems say so: 2008: +176.5%, | 2009: +8.6%, | 2010: +46.85%, | 2011: +78.10% | 2012 : in progress |
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