This week’s review will basically cover the line moves and our sports investment positions for Round 22 of AFL betting. Needing to give the MLB the time and respect it deserves, whilst still staying on top of NFL and NCAAF developments has us pretty busy. Good luck in round 23.
Friday 24th August Richmond [$1.62, -9.5 @ 1.91] vs Essendon [$2.40, +9.5 @ 1.91] for the Friday night MCG game. Richmond ripped this one to shreds and were very impressive, running out resounding 45 point winners. Although the perception of the performance was enhanced by the Bombers dismal form, poor conversion from the Tigers saw them not capitalise on their 71 to 40 inside 50 advantage. Tigers should have won by much more. Early lines was +/- 9.5 @ 1.92, moving to a pregame line of Tigers -9.5 @ 1.885 vs Bombers +9.5 @ 2.02.
Saturday 25th August St. Kilda [$1.02, -80.5 @ 1.91] handed out a 128pt hiding to GWS [$15.00, +80.5 @ 1.91] at Etihad. This line moved to +/-82.5 @ 1.952 late, off the back of an opening line of +/-75.5 from the bookmakers. Steven Milne with 5 goals – they now face a test against Carlton next week with a departing Brett Ratten giving the Blues some extra oomph.
Saturday 25th August Port Adelaide [$2.35, +8.5 @ 1.91] hosted the Brisbane Lions [$1.62, -8.5 @ 1.91] and gave the Lions some trouble early on. When the game was there to be won, the Lions were able to step up for 10 minutes or so and kick the necessary goals to put the game to bed. By the final stages Brisbane had gone back to dominating the game. Early line was +/-5.5, the late AFL betting line saw the bookies showing +/-7.5. We took Brisbane -7.5 investing 21.5 to win 20 units, and Brisbane 40+, investing 9.5 to win 40 units.
Saturday 25th August Highlighted as the match of the round – and this game delivered. Sydney [$2.00, +2.5 @ 1.91] vs Hawthorn [$1.85, -2.5 @ 1.91] at the SCG – and the first half was a real SCG stun job from the swannies, keeping the Hawks goalless in the first quarter. Hawthorn proved they are legitimate grand final favourites, charging back from a 38 point deficit in the second half to win by 7 points and cover. Early line from the bookmakers was +/-2.5, staying steady to a AFL betting late line of Sydney +2.5 @ 1.909, vs Hawthorn -2.5 @ 2.00.
Saturday 25th August Carlton [$1.02, -68.5 @ 1.85] were expected, almost assumed to walk in against the Gold Coast [$15.00, +68.5 @ 1.95] and give themselves a possibility of playing finals. It didn’t happen, and Ratten was given his marching orders on the back of it. Despite dominating in both inside 50s and marks inside 50, Carlton lost this one by 12 points. Early line was +/-62.5, and the late line saw Suns +69.5 @ 1.943, Blues -69.5 @ 1.962. This line move didn’t salute. We took Carlton -68.5 investing 16 to win 15 units.
Saturday 25th August West Coast [$1.68, -5.5 @ 1.85] home against Collingwood [$2.22, +5.5 @ 1.95]. After a slow start, the Eagles cruised away, putting Collingwood under constant pressure. Naitanui and Kerr were outstanding. West Coast off to the MCG this Friday night for a testing game against the Hawks. Bookmakers early AFL betting line of +/-3.5 moved to a late line pregame of WCE -5.5 @ 1.909 and Pies +5.5 @ 2.00, which we took investing in West Coast -5.5 investing 16 to win 15 units.
Sunday 26th August Geelong [$1.02, -70.5 @ 1.91] at Symonds Stadium given a huge line to cover against the Western Bulldogs [$15.00, +70.5 @ 1.91] for the first game on Sunday afternoon. We had this line marked at +/-64 points. We were of the view that Geelong would win it, but would need to really press things to cover the late line of +/-71.5. We took the +12 goals with Western Bulldogs +71.5 investing 11 to win 10 units.
Sunday 26th August The game that really made everyone sit up and take notice, with North Melbourne [$1.25, -25.5 @ 1.91] failing against a Pavlich-free Fremantle [$4.05, +25.5 @ 1.91]. Winning as an outright dog, Fremantle have been particularly strong of late, with a record of 8-2 ATS over their last 10 games. Going very strong into September. Early bookmakers line of +/-16.5 moved late to North Melbourne -27.5 @ 1.943 and Fremantle +27.5 @ 1.962 after Pavlich’s withdrawal was confirmed.
Sunday 26th August Melbourne [$6.75, +38.5 @ 1.91] continued their shocking run, smashed by Adelaide [1.11, -38.5 @ 1.91] at the MCG. Adelaide were much harder at it, Melbourne constantly under pressure and truly outclassed. Brad Green’s retirement game would be one he would want to forget. Well beaten in the clearances, Tippett and Walker were busy. Early line of +/-40.5 eased in to +/-37.5 – a move that didn’t salute for the punters betting on some Brad Green final match brilliance.
Favourites went 6 – 3 against the bookmaker’s handicap line. (Now 99 – 90 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up twice.
At professionalgambler for round 22, we had five positions, finishing 3 – 2 for +19.5 units, sending our 2012 AFL only season record to 30-34, for +46.5 units.
Investing in sports betting markets daily when our systems say so: 2008: +176.5%, | 2009: +8.6%, | 2010: +46.85%, | 2011: +78.10% | 2012 : in progress |
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