“Wisdom begins in wonder” – Socrates.
With only two weeks of the AFL betting regular season only to go, a few teams are making a last late charge for a position of influence within the final 8 – while others such as Fremantle and Carlton are playing for a position in the 8. There are absolutely a few worthy sports investment opportunities this week. Wherever you place your stakes, we hope you are on the right side in AFL round 22.
Surprised Richmond have only come up as -9.5 point favourites here.
Port have been terrible in most spots this year and will struggle to cover against this Lions side should they show up in any sort of form that resembles what they showed last week. Lions have been steadily improving through the year, and still put in at home… but playing away? The betting markets have the lions as marginal favourites… we had the line marked as a much more generous spot for Adelaide – up towards +15 points. Lions advanced statistics also much more robust.
St. Kilda without Kozzi and Riewoldt still laying close to 85 points at Etihad. That’s a tall number the bookmakers have set there – we won’t play this but lean St. Kilda at Etihad.
The match of the round – some see it as a grand final preview – that’s very possible. The AFL betting market has these two hard to split, which bodes well if it is a grand final preview of sorts. Either team “under 15” is a worthwhile option here at anything over a price of $2.30 if you can find it.
As we get later in the season, the home ground advantage becomes very valuable for the home team – especially if they are finals contenders like the Eagles are here. Bookmakers often handicap they home ground advantage fully, limiting value. For us, we are looking to play The Eagles here, with a more full strength team than we have seen for a while. Collingwood are just 10% off at the moment which will not do over there.
Coming off a solid thrashing of Essendon, the only question is if you will go with the Blues here as your sports investment option and lay the -63.5 points. Carlton have covered 4 of their last 5 ATS, and will be playing for percentage and a corresponding finals spot – technically this is still on offer. The Suns weren’t all that impressive last week despite not being totally blown away by Hawthorn – more due to the Hawks indifference that afforded the Suns some latitude.
Hefty line for the Cats here, as was always going to be the case at home against the struggling dogs. The Bulldogs despite being very ordinary – do need to be looked at as an option they approach 10-12 goal head starts. This matchup will surely have the betting lines affected by late changes in either, or both, teams.
Pav, Pav, Pav. Is he fit and will he play? An important matchup for the Dockers, a win here is for finals. Dockers have played some good football at Etihad, and in Melbourne in general this year. Would be foolhardy to rule them out. The roos have been a sports investment wrecking ball since mid-season. Would need good reasons to go against, but they have been up for a while now.
Brad Green’s send off game. Unlikely to be a fitting end to his career here – would take a supreme effort for the Dees to get up, but that is what games like these are for. Will see some support at the +39.5 as game time approaches and the Brad Green factor brings some action. Dees are 6-6 at the bookmakers ATS betting line in 2012 when getting +30 points or more. Can they tip the ledger this weekend to 7-6?
All the best for your round 22 action.
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