Round 21 of AFL betting has been and gone – with a few surprising results, and a few results that were played close to the bookmakers script. Brisbane and North Melbourne brought some fantastic football on Saturday to win as moneyline underdogs against Adelaide and North Melbourne respectively. Essendon were flogged by Carlton, who were marginal favourites.
We had an average week of AFL betting. We will push through the finals, where we did quite well last year.
Friday 17th August Liked Geelong [$1.30, -18.5 @ 1.85] here, unfortunately for our sports investment on this game, the Cats ended up winning by just a bit too much over St. Kilda [$3.70, +18.5 @ 1.95]. Our boy Hawkins kicked 6 as the Cats ran out 42 point winners, and our position of Geelong 1-39 investing 19 to win 20 units misses by 3 points. Very close. Early line was +/- 15.5, late line saw a move to +/-18.5
Saturday 18th August Very healthy win for Carlton [$1.80, -3.5 @ 1.91] who refuse to allow anyone to rule them out for a finals berth, unleashing down a 96 point win over Essendon [$2.05, +3.5 @ 1.91] at the MCG on Saturday. The Bombers season is likely over at the end of the home and away, and they would have to be bewildered with their ongoing shocking run of form. The early line here was +/- 5.5, in to +/- 3.5 late.
Saturday 18th August GWS [$5.00, +34.5 @ 1.91] hosted Melbourne [$1.18, -34.5 @ 1.91] at Manuka oval. GWS would have set themselves as going close, and they were commendable – covering for the 11th time this season, and although lacking class, really did dig in. Melbourne wound up kicking a poor 11.18 that just hurts when laying large margins. Early line on this game of +/- 32.5 barely moved, settling at +/-33.5 late.
Saturday 18th August Patersons Oval and Fremantle [$1.37, -16.5 @ 1.91] hosted Richmond [$3.15, +16.5 @ 1.91] in a game they needed to win to continue to entertain their finals hopes. Aaron Sandilands was a late addition in a shock for the Tigers – that had coach Damien Hardwick fuming post match. Pavlich remained on the ground despite regularly receiving treatment for an injured groin throughout the game – perhaps indicating the importance of this match. The Tigers should be looking to battle out these past two games to take some momentum into 2013. Early line was +/-18.5 and late line was +/-15.5. We laid the -15.5 on Fremantle, investing 21.5 to win 20 units.
Saturday 18th August A Collingwood [$1.28, -21.5 @ 1.91] home game at Etihad Stadium, with the Pies falling to the Kangaroos [$3.80, +21.5 @ 1.91] by an unlikely 30 points. With the line sitting at +/-22.5 pre-game and North Melbourne flying of recent times, this was one the punters really had to stare down and do their homework on. We passed on the +21.5 @ 1.917 with North, a line showing the slightest late support for the Roos. Great fight from North here, and they continue their excellent ATS record of 9-0 since round 12. Will be dangerous finals competitors.
Saturday 18th August Brisbane Lions [$4.80, +29.5 @ 1.91] also showed similar fight to “kick the winning score” against Adelaide [$1.20, -29.5 @ 1.91] up at the Gabba. Unlikely as it seemed with Tippett and Walker roaming in the forward line against an inexperienced Brisbane defensive set-up, Tippett especially was ineffectual. Brisbane dominated play after half-time, running out 10 point winners. Early line of +/-32.5 finished with the Lions getting the late support with +29.5 @ 1.87 vs Adelaide -29.5 @ 2.040. We passed on Adelaide minus points – no bet for us.
Sunday 19th August West Coast Eagles [$1.13, -37.5 @ 1.91] were set a stiff line by the bookmakers as big away favourites against Port Adelaide [$6.40, +37.5 @ 1.91] at AAMI stadium. They were good enough to cover, running out with a 48 point win. A pretty lacklustre game, and not a great replay to watch. West Coast workmanlike. Early line was +/-38.5, late the line was basically unchanged at +/-37.5.
Sunday 19th August Western Bulldogs [$10.00, +47.5 @ 1.91] welcomed back some key experience, but still served up basically the same old poor 2012 football for the Sydney Swans [$1.06, -47.5 @ 1.91] to feast on. There was some chatter that the bookmakers had given the Western Bulldogs a line that they would finally cover with. It was not to be this time, and the Dogs are now 1-9 ATS in their past 10 games. The late line was +/-48.5, after opening the week at +/-50.5.
Sunday 19th August. The week’s AFL betting ended with Hawthorn [$1.01, -100.5 @ 1.91] comfortably accounting for Gold Coast [$26.00, +100.5 @ 1.91] at the MCG. We were laying the -99.5 with the Hawks investing 22 to win 20 units. Like many others, we were hit by Franklin’s late withdrawal – had he not been named, we would have passed on this game without a doubt. The early line on this game was +/-105.5 and after Buddy withdrew, the line crushed in to +94.5 @ 1.926 @ and -94.4 @ 1.98. As it was we layed the bad number, poor dynamic with no Buddy and the Hawks in second gear, and we didn’t cover.
Favourites went 5 – 4 against the bookmaker’s handicap line. (Now 93 – 87 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up twice.
At professionalgambler for round 21, we had three positions, finishing 1 – 2 for -21 units, sending our 2012 AFL only season record to 27-32, for +27 units.
Investing in sports betting markets daily when our systems say so: 2008: +176.5%, | 2009: +8.6%, | 2010: +46.85%, | 2011: +78.10% | 2012 : in progress |
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