Not the easiest week of AFL betting, in a nutshell – Sydney let us down against Collingwood. Not that we got that one wrong, we would still make that bet 9 times out of 10, it just hurt the ATS position and was a leg of the double. They seemed not to be able to reset their attack well enough, and Collingwood fought it out better that we expected. Credit to them. Geelong on the Friday night was not a worry – Tom Hawkins going down hurt us there, and Geelong still almost pinched it at $2.85 for us.
Friday 10th August Geelong [$2.22, +6.5 @ 1.91] again on the Friday night to start the round, and another solid performance heading over to tackle the West Coast Eagles [$1.70, -6.5 @ 1.91] at Patersons Stadium. With a +/-7.5 line late, taking Geelong 1-39 offered a good number at $2.85 – and had Hawkins not gone down in the first 5 minutes, this game would have been a Cats win. As it was, Hawkins gets stretchered off and we lose by 5 points. Cat’s still cover and our investment of 11 to win 20 Cats 1-39 falls short.
Saturday 11th August, St. Kilda [$1.05, -50.5 @ 1.91] were huge favourites to beat Melbourne [$11.00, +50.5 @ 1.91] at the MCG, and the betting market on this match started the week at +/-46.5, and finished late with Saints -51.5 @ 1.962 vs Demons +51.5 @ 1.943 on the back of continued St. Kilda support. The final result showed only 25 points separating the two teams, and Riewoldt going off early in the match didn’t help the situation for sports betting players taking St. Kilda, nor did the Demons storming finish.
Saturday 11th August, an improving Fremantle [$3.15, +18.5 @ 1.91] travelled to Adelaide to match up against the Crows [$1.38, -18.5 @ 1.91]. Pavlich was much better held this week by Daniel Talia and wasn’t able to exert himself on the scoreboard. Dangerfield was hot for the home side, and should take 3 Brownlow votes here. Late line was +/- 19.5, the same as where it started the week with the bookmakers.
Saturday 11th August, this time it was the Gold Coast Suns [$1.38, -20.5 @ 1.91] turn to cover against the GWS Giants [$3.15, +20.5 @ 1.91] at Metricon. The early week line of +/-16.5 drifted to +/-24.5 by game time. GWS are 1-7 ATS over their last 8 now as the season nears a close. This was a game we leaned Gold Coast (more a fade of GWS) but more than anything just wanted to stay away from it.
Saturday 11th August We fancied the Sydney Swans [$1.60, -10.5 @ 1.91] at home to rack up a 15-20 point win over Collingwood [$2.40, +10.5 @ 1.91], especially considering the Pies have been down on some key numbers, playing away from home, minus Dane Swan – who had been so influential in linking up the play of late. But credit to the Pies, able to get over a poor kicking Sydney. Conditions kept this game rebounding between the 50 metre arcs at times. Early line was +/-7.5, late line had the Swans 11.5 point favourites. We took the Swans -11.5 points investing 15 to win 15 units.
Saturday 11th August We liked Carlton [$1.19, -32.5 @ 1.91] with them looking forward to rolling over a lesser ranked Brisbane [$5.00, +32.5 @ 1.91] at Etihad stadium. Away from home, the Lions had been struggling – their only victories away being against teams that subsequently proved to be pretty poor prospects (Western Bulldogs, Melbourne), for an average loss of 53.6 points in 2012. The bookmaker’s line started at +/-28.5 on Monday, finishing late at +/-33.5. Our position was Carlton -33.5 investing 15.5 to win 15 units. Also the second leg of Sydney -11.5 / Carlton -33.5 double, investing 11.5 to win 30 units.
Sunday 12th August Hawthorn [$1.02, -75.5 @ 1.91] were backed to do a number on Port Adelaide [$16.00, +75.5 @ 1.91], but given the early start from the Power, they had obviously not read the script – leading by 7 points at quarter time. A huge last quarter nearly had the Hawks cover the 75 points, finally winning by 72 points. Looked hard at the Hawks, but pulled up given the ol’ “new coach” theory, especially with Hocking – held in high respect already. +/-70.5 was the early line on Monday.
Sunday 12th August Richmond [$1.14, -39.5 @ 1.91] had their chance finally against the hapless Bulldogs [$6.00, +39.5 @ 1.91]. Taking a middling team in Richmond to cover a 39.5 point handicap is not making things easy for yourself, so we passed on this game – as any sane opinion can likewise not touch the Bulldogs at a betting line of anything under +50 points. Happy to stay away, but the early week line of +/-33.5 towards the Tigers side was tempting for many punters, driving this to -42.5 at the bounce.
Sunday 12 August One of the match ups of the round Essendon [$2.20, +6.5 @ 1.91] vs North Melbourne [$1.70, -6.5 @ 1.91] at Etihad on Sunday afternoon. The market remained relatively undecided about the early +/-7.5, with some slight support for North leaving the AFL betting line at +/-8.5 @ 1.952 late pre-game. North have been outperforming lately, with them covering for 8 matches in a row. Essendon’s performance last week had most people keeping them safe when adding the return of Monfries, Crameri and Fletcher.
Favourites went 5 – 4 against the bookmaker’s handicap line. (Now 88 – 83 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up once.
At professionalgambler for round 20, we specced at long odds for two positions, and picked two games ATS. Week 20’s AFL betting finished 1 – 3 for -22.5 units, sending our 2012 AFL only season record to 26-30, for +48 units.
Investing in sports betting markets daily when our systems say so: 2008: +176.5%, | 2009: +8.6%, | 2010: +46.85%, | 2011: +78.10% | 2012 : in progress |
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