Round 20, and we are betting AFL again.
Geelong are making a late charge. Not out of the question that the Cats could win the flag again, but would have to think that they will come up short through the finals. It will just be a bit too tough this year. West Coast have faltered over the past few weeks, and the trip to Perth is not shaping as the impossible journey it was earlier in the year. This will be a close tussle over in the west for the Friday night game. +/-7.5 with West Coast the favourites.
Saints giving up 51.5 points to the Demons on Saturday at the ‘G. Probably right where this line should be. Greeen was in good form last week, and has announced his retirement this week for the end of the season. Were it not Melbourne you would think they would lift for these last few games for him, but the Dees have not done this in the past for significant occasions, or if anything, have underperformed as a result of the pressure. We don’t particularly like either side of the 51.5, but lean St. Kilda – depending on the weather.
Fremantle are playing to the Ross Lyon gameplan and it has been working. A real purple patch (pardon the pun). Their defense has been fantastic these past few weeks, and they have travelled well with the gameplan. Adelaide found enough to get home last week, but crediting Fremantle with 16.5 points somewhat leans you towards taking the boys in purple. Will have to see how this looks late.
The cellar dwellers meet for the second time in 2012, with Gold Coast a 20.5 point favourite. In their first encounter in round 7, the line was had GWS as 24.5 point dog that won outright by 27 points. Two wins for 2012 now to GWS and they will be hunting a third. Are yet to really examine the team lineups here yet.
Swans are now 11.5 point favourites against a Dane Swan free Collingwood – him being suspended for drinking during the season. AFL betting has been rewarding on the Sydney Swans, with them covering the past 6 lines in a row, and us having a decent win on them only last week. Only 7 times in 2012 have the ‘Pies have scored over 100 points in a game, vs 14 at this stage in 2011. Sydney have been damaging, 11 times scoring over 100 points this year thus far. Sam Reid and Bolton out are concerns.
Liking Carlton to cover here. Lions will be looking forward to the end of the season, and are showing signs of fatigue and switching off and will be happy to put 2012 behind them. Carlton would have to think that they have Ratten’s future in their hands, but that horse has probably bolted. Not enough talent and polish in this Brisbane team. 32.5 points seems fair – would NOT want to lay so much and rely on Carlton to get me cover. So wouldn’t touch this game barring some late info.
Will the Hawks continue their pointspread monster ways this week? Coming back to earth against the modern arch enemy last week, and the Kenneyt Curse was in effect again. We are sure the Hawks will rebound. AFL betting line has the Hawks as deserved heavy favorites despite (or because?) of Buddy’s absence. Laying close to 80 points requires some confidence and serious weather study.
The Tigers face a very poor opponent in the Bulldogs, who’s terrible ATS record we have discussed previously. The Dogs have also lost their last 5 games at an average of 52 points. For sports betting players the match up reeks of danger. The line is not upwards of 40, indicating that the oddsmakers don’t rate the consistency of the Tigers in this spot (or any spot for that matter). We won’t be risking here.
Have Essendon got their year back on track? Taking Adelaide for a scare last week before being over-run late, the sports betting line has the Bombers as a reasonable chance of getting the job done here at Etihad on Sunday. Essendon too inconsistent for us – and have been a bit of a sport-betting bogey team over the years: losing as strong favourites one week, and upsetting as major underdogs weeks later. Having said that, the 1.66 about North Melbourne looks short with Fletcher et al coming in, as others come out.
Hope round 20 is good to you.
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