A much deserved positive week of AFL betting for round 19. Also interesting was that a couple of sports investments we wanted to go with, but we eventually passed on, also got up. Game of the year so far was the Friday night game. Here’s hoping that the 2012 Grand Final is half as good, and if it was these two teams contesting it, you’d have to say the Cats might start as favourites given their run against the Hawks!
Friday 3rd August What a sensational Friday night game. Cats home in a thriller here. If you haven’t seen this match, chase up a copy of Geelong [$3.80, +26.5 @ 1.91] getting over Hawthorn [$1.28, -26.5 @ 1.91] by two points. This line started the week at +/-21.5, with a final line at our book of Hawks -26.5 @ 1.980 vs Cats +26.5 @ 1.926. Breaks the Hawks ATS run of 8 in a row. We had a price action play on Geelong moneyline, investing 10 to win 31 units.
Saturday 4th August The horror show for the Western Bulldogs [$9.50, +50.5 @ 1.91] continued, with them going down to North Melbourne [$1.07, -50.5 @ 1.91] by 54 points, and in doing so, just covering the -50.5 points we layed investing 20 to win 20 units. The Kangaroos had a poor start here – down by 11 points in the second quarter, and it is a credit to them, (but also an indication of where the Dogs are at) with them able to still fight back to cover the imposing line. The early AFL betting line had this +/-44.5 points, and the late line had you laying +/-50.5, with the Dogs slightly shorter at the line of 1.917, and Roos -50.5 @ 1.99. Will the Bulldogs cover again this year?
Saturday 4 August GWS [$6.25, +45.5 @ 1.91] inflicted a sorry loss on Port Adelaide [$1.13, -45.5 @ 1.91] in front of a small crowd at Skoda Stadium in what was also Kevin Sheedy’s 1000th game. Port Adelaide saw Matt Primus lose his job over this. The line movements on this game saw the early line of +/-46.5 level out at +/-45.5 late pre bounce.
Saturday 4 August Another upset for Saturday with underdogs Fremantle [$2.65, +15.5 @ 1.91] flogging the West Coast Eagles [$1.50, -15.5 @ 1.91] in front of a vocal crowd at Paterson’s stadium. Good rucking and super Fremantle clearance work saw Pavlich get some of the best opportunities he’s had recently, and he relished it – finishing with 8 goals, and getting the Dockers home by 65 points. Eagles are rightly having some questions asked, as they slip to 1-4 ATS their last 5, and Fremantle cover their 6th straight. Late line was +16.5 @ 1.971 vs -16.5 @ 1.931, after starting the week +/-15.5.
Saturday 4 August Wanting to take St. Kilda [$3.15, +17.5 @ 1.91] to cover against Collingwood [$1.38, -17.5 @ 1.91] at the MCG on Saturday, and nearly had one better – St.Kilda with legitimate claims on the draw here after a very dubious umpiring decision should have lead to a shot on goal in the final seconds to draw this game. Regardless, line movement here saw us shy away from taking a position of +15.5 on the Saints. Saints +15.5 @ 2.070 covered with the late line anyway – with St. Kilda only losting by 6 points. Pies late line -15.5 @ 1.847 having come from the early line of +/-16.5.
Saturday 4 August The final game for Saturday saw the Lions [$2.30, +7.5 @ 1.91] host the Tigers [$1.65, -7.5 @ 1.91] up at the Gabba. Simon Black started on the bench here – meaning the Tigers controlled stoppages early and kept the Lions on the back foot for the majority of the game as a result. Brisbane threatened briefly in the last, but the skinny early week line of -7.5 proved to be very skinny, with the lions finally succumbing by way of a 48 point mini-blowout. Late line was favouring Tigers slightly, with +/-8.5
Sunday 5 August Hallelujah! Melbourne [$1.33, -21.5 @ 1.91] are back on the board again, taking out Gold Coast [$3.40, +21.5 @ 1.91] by 42 points. A fairly scrappy game, with Brad Green enjoying what will probably be his last season here at the Demons, having a real old-school Greeny day out. Late AFL betting line had Melbourne -19.5 @ 1.917 vs Suns +19.5 @ 1.990. Melbourne had been getting support all week, coming from +/-23.5.
Sunday 5 August Sydney [$1.40, -16.5 @ 1.91] had a dominating win over Carlton [$3.05, +16.5 @ 1.91] who look like they don’t have much more to give. Their fall away from form has been dramatic, and they look like a poor performing version of their early-season-selves, and were lucky to not have suffered a 30+ point loss. Sydney firming as flag contenders. +/-17.5 early in the week, was similar pre-game although Sydney had drifted strongly during the week and then firmed very late. We took Sydney -17.5, investing 21 to win 20 units.
Sunday 5th August. Last game of round 19, and the Crows [$1.12, -38.5 @ 1.91] got an almighty scare from a very unimpressive (on paper anyway) Essendon [$6.40, +38.5 @ 1.91] side. They fought and fought, with a fantastic game from Watson and Dempsey keeping the bombers in it – until they lacked a little bit of poise late. A heartbreaker for James Hird, and a mini-crisis for Essendon in 2012. Early line had this as +/-28.5, and finished late at Crows -39.5 @ 2.010 vs Bombers +39.5 @ 1.901 on the back of Fletcher and Dyson late omissions and general Crows Support.
Favourites went 4 – 5 against the bookmaker’s handicap line. (Now 83 – 79 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up once.
At professionalgambler for round 19, we finished the round with 3 – 0 for +71 units, pushing our 2012 AFL only season record to 25-27, for +70.5 units.
Investing in sports betting markets daily when our systems say so: 2008: +176.5%, | 2009: +8.6%, | 2010: +46.85%, | 2011: +78.10% | 2012 : in progress |
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