Saturday 27th May 2017,
Dr Sport

A Live Betting Case Study of the 2012 Wimbledon Men’s Final.

Every live betting market tells a story. In the 2012 Wimbledon Men’s final, it told a story of a quick start by a likely contender overhauled through the class of a champion in a market where upwards of AUD $80m was traded. In-play betting on this contest would have been fantastic for the traders, with a nicely fluctuating market and odds-on laying opportunities about both players. Depending on your outlet, the traditional bookmaker posted the pre-game head to head of Federer $1.50, vs Murray $2.75 as a reference.

Just note that care needs to be taken in viewing the charts below – do not assume these market reactions are typical; they are only indicative of what occurred in this particular final between Federer and Murray.

Each live betting market represents an event that has it’s own traits and intangibles that are particular to the game being played. Examples of the varying factors that can impact the market include players temperament, injury concerns, serving percentages, head to head history etc etc. Therefore, care needs to be exercised in making generalisations about market movements in response to game occurrences.

That being said, we thought what follows would make a tidy case study and give sports investment players that are new to live betting an insight into the types of swings that could be expected in a Wimbledon final and the corresponding match circumstances.

Here is a discussion of some key swing-points in the contest, with corresponding in-play or live betting market reactions charted as they occurred.

1)

Murray breaks Federer in the first set - Live Betting Market Wimbledon 2012

| Murray breaks Federer in the first game of the match – live betting market reaction, Andy Murray price. |

Murray breaks Federer in the first game of the match - live betting market reaction

| Murray breaks Federer in the first game of the match – live betting market reaction, Roger Federer price. |

Murray began the contest full of energy, striking the ball well and covering the court – all spurred on by a vocal and supportive crowd. He breaks Roger in the first game of the match. In response Federer blows out from ~$1.50 to ~$1.70 in Betfair live betting, Murray firms from ~$2.80 to ~$2.30 as evident in the above images.

2)

Federer breaks Murray in the first set to go back on serve.

| Federer breaks back against Murray in the first set to go back on serve to 2-2 – live betting market reaction, Andy Murray. |

Federer breaks Murray back in the first set, live betting reaction.

| Federer breaks back against Murray in the first set to go back on serve to 2-2 – live betting market reaction, Roger Federer. |

Murray is talking to himself, and dumps a ball into the net to hand Federer the break back, and we are now 2-2. The in-play market restores itself to approximate the pre-match market.

3)

Murray breaks again in 1st, will serve for the set.

| Murray breaks Federer again in first set, will serve for the set – live betting market reaction, Andy Murray. |

Murray breaks Federer again in 1st, will serve for set

| Murray breaks Federer again in first set, will serve for set – live betting market reaction, Roger Federer. |

Federer was unable to capitalise on the break opportunities in Murray’s service game, proving costly as Murray comes out and breaks Federer to go to 5-4. He will now serve for the first set, and the live betting market is in repeat mode, reverting to the roughly the same levels as when Murray broke to start the set, but with Murray slightly firmer, Federer at a slightly bigger price – due to the break having more importance being closer to the conclusion of the set.

4)

Murray takes the 1st set - Wimbledon Live Betting 2012

| Murray takes the 1st set – live betting market reaction, Andy Murray.|

 

Murray takes 1st set - Wimbledon live betting|Murray takes the 1st set – live betting market reaction, Andy Murray. |

Notice how much of an impact winning a set has on the live betting market. All Murray actually needed to do to take the set was hold serve here and consolidate the break – but until that happens, it is still just a break in hand. Both players hover to approx $2.00 – Federer drifting, Murray firming obviously after he takes the first set.

5)

Federer wins second set - live betting market

| Federer wins second set – live betting market reaction, Andy Murray. |

Federer wins second set - Wimbledon Live Betting

| Federer wins second set – live betting market reaction, Roger Federer.|

Federer takes the second set, and sanity is restored. Market reacts accordingly, sending Federer crunching in to ~$1.60, and Murray out to ~$2.75. Before losing that set, Murray was gradually trending lower, reaching odds-on before rocketing out late. If we look at how this set, progressed, the price was pretty reflective of the play. Murray was holding with ease, and 30-0 up on serve at 5-6 before Federer broke him with some of the best tennis of the match to take the set.

6)

Federer Breaks Murray in third set - Live Betting

| Federer breaks Murray in the third set – live betting market reaction, Andy Murray. |

Fed breaks Murray in the third set - Wimbledon live betting reaction.

| Fed breaks Murray in the third set – live betting reaction, Roger Federer. |

After a rain delay early in the set, Federer eventually adds the 3rd set, and things start to look tough for Murray. After breaking mid set to go up 4-2, Federer hold for 5-2, Murray holds to go 5-3 but is unable to break to stay in the set. Federer is now a set away from taking the title, has momentum, is returning the Murray first serves far better, has class and plenty of big-game experience. $1.25 is his price heading into the fourth set, with Murray hovering around 5’s.

7)

Federer goes up a break against Murray in the fourth set, live betting

| Federer breaks Murray in the fourth set – live betting reaction, Andy Murray. |

Federer breaks Murray in the fourth set - Wimbledon live betting.

| Federer breaks Murray in the fourth set – live betting reaction, Roger Federer. |

Federer, full of confidence, is serving at 70% this set, but Murray is also able to find big serves when he needs them, and manages to hang in there until Federer breaks to go up 4-2, pressing a struggling Murray on serve with a slice backhands, and then a ripping backhand crosscourt. Federer in top gear. He is two holds of serve away from another Wimbledon title. Federer naturally firms once more, and rockets in to 1.10 and shorter with the in-play market late in the fourth set.

8)

Federer serving for the match, Wimbledon 2012 live betting

| Federer serving for the match – live betting reaction, Andy Murray. |

Federer serving for the match - Wimbledon 2012 live betting

| Federer serving for the match, live betting reaction, Roger Federer. |

Federer is clearly impossibly short here, the above price taken as he was about to begin serving for the set, and the championship. Murray’s price is in blowout mode, and fluctuates wildly between 15.00/35.00 as the end approaches for him with some faithful punters speccing away at the big odds in hope of an upset. It’s not to be today, as Federer closes Murray out and takes his 17th Grand Slam title and his 7th Wimbledon.

Roger certainly traded at a decent price, $2.00 or better was very gettable as an in play betting price for any sports investment player that felt he wanted to be on Roger, but not at the short pre-match price. Punters who felt that the pre-match $1.50 about Federer was too short and placed a “keep at in play” bet on Roger at their desired price – say for example you wanted to be on Federer at $1.80 – would have been filled.

All the best in your future live betting.

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

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