“Football is an incredible game. Sometimes it’s so incredible, it’s unbelievable.” – Tom Landry
Round 19 begins with one of the great modern rivalries : Hawthorn vs Geelong. Got a feeling this will be a good round of football. We will be fairly light this weekend- barring some huge market shifts. Lets get to it.
The old Rivalry is back. After a narrow two point win in their Easter Monday clash, and a long history of Hawthorn losses to the Cats, the blistering vein of form the Hawks have found see them solid favourites to take out this clash at the MCG. Will no doubt be shorter immediately before the game, and the line handicap will surely drift also. We will be involved in this market.
The Kangaroos are the big turnaround-form team of 2012, sitting with a post-bye record that Richmond wish they had. As such, they have been handed a hefty sportsbook line this week. Will have to win by the better part of 10 goals to cover, but have Western Bulldogs – a team with an absent spine and a low-scoring team, against a powerhouse Petrie and co up forward of recent weeks. The bookies do not give the doggies a hope.
Unlike regular bookmakers lines, we are not looking first at the dog here tonight. With a line under 50 points the first order of business is to think of laying the super-weak GWS. When they have lost (16 times), GWS have by lost more than 50 points on 13 of those occasions, and lost by less than 50 only 3 times among those 16 losses. Recently, GWS went from a mid-year ATS record of 9-2, losing their last 6 and are now 9-8.
The battle out west, and closer is the line here than we had projected ourselves. West Coast to miss Glass. WC will want to win this and consolidate its ladder position, and push up if possible. Fremantle were good against Port last week, and are 5 straight covers ATS over the last 5. Should see us stay away.
The Pies and the Saints is the Saturday night game at MCG, where the Saints have only played twice this year for two failures in covering the bookmaker spread. The Pies will be a tough assignment for the Saints, with a few big names back in for the black and white. 5th on percentage, you can easily make a case for the pies. Saints with the form.
Brisbane get a nice spot for a home game – a much needed chance to regroup, play competitive football and install some more hope back into the team that has had a tough few weeks – with Sydney, GABBA, Gold Coast, then Perth trips past 4 weeks. Richmond continue to take gallant losses, and are favourites this week by just over a goal.
Melbourne will be sniffing a win here. The AFL Betting line has them as decent favourites, with this game being played at the MCG. The ‘Dees are not solid or consistent enough to back them in this spot we think. Missing Jamar and Clarke means a reliance on Green to deliver up forward – there just isn’t enough confidence to get involved and there are plenty of better options this weekend.
The Blues have lifted these past few weeks, covering the line twice in a row and upsetting Richmond in the process, but it will be back down to earth this weekend against a full throttle Sydney team. They will be far too clinical. As far as AFL betting is concerned, we had this betting line marked at around -25 in Sydney’s favour so will have to see what late info there is and how we feel about a position closer to gametime.
It’s a well and truly undermanned Essendon facing Adelaide this weekend, with further damage to their stocks through Monfries and Fletcher now missing. Smart sports investment indicates we would look to lay the points with Adelaide, and this game ending in a handy blowout. But, the Crows can be guilty of “mailing it in” at home – spelling disaster when you are laying 30+ points. We were on the end of that in round 12 when they just fell in when laying 11 points, and last weeks lost to Geelong wasn’t instilling in us too much confidence. More work to be done on this one.
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