A heavy week of favorites ATS this week, so a good week for those who like their parlays I would assume. We snapped up a small winning week, and were not quick enough to get things done in time for the West Coast sports investment position we had circled earlier in the weekend. Hope the week was good to you all.
Friday 27th July Essendon [$6.00, +36.5 @ 1.91] were demolished by a still-flying Hawthorn [$1.14, -36.5 @ 1.91] at Etihad Stadium by 94 points. Yes, 94 points without Lance Franklin. Superstar Luke Hodge was back at his hardworking best, having not been in the senior side since round 6 but kicking a lazy 5 goals on return. Hawthorns depth was very telling in this encounter, scoring heavily and deadly by foot. As far as AFL Betting was concerned, the move on this line was from +/-27.5 on Monday to +/- 31.5 by Wednesday, all the way to a pre-game line of Essendon +35.5 @ 2.010 vs Hawthorn -35.5 @ 1.901. Late omissions to Crameri and Hooker were influential, but it was still a significant move. Hawks to tackle their old sparring partner Geelong next week and will be very short especially facing a team they haven’t beaten since 2008.
Saturday 28th July Geelong [$1.62, -8.5 @ 1.91] faced Adelaide [$2.35, +8.5 @ 1.91] at Simonds stadium, with things not getting off to a good start with an concussion/facial injury to Stevie Johnson in the first 5 seconds of the game. Despite this, and the later loss of Joel Corey with a hamstring, plenty of solid effort at the contest saw the Cats put Adelaide away by a comfortable 27 points. Adelaide really struggled to mark inside 50, Taylor Walker not able to do enough single handedly. Hawkins with 3 goals and 11 marks bodes well for the big battle next week. Starting the week at +/-5.5, the pre-game line saw a move to Geelong -9.5 @ 1.909 vs Adelaide +9.5 @ 2.00.
Saturday 28th July North Melbourne [$1.09, -44.5 @ 1.91] were heavy favourites over a Melbourne [$8.00, +44.5 @ 1.91] team that has generally failed at the sportsbetting line in 2012 (6-10 ATS before this match). A domination of the inside 50s, (62 to 37) and a powerful, in form forward target in Drew Petrie saw the Kangaroos up by 53 points at 3/4 time. Despite taking the foot off the pedal in the last quarter, North were able to get the cover on the late line of -44.5 @ 1.885 vs Melbourne’s +44.5 @ 2.020. The line here started the week at +/-38.5. We took North Melbourne -44.5 points, investing 17 to win 15 units.
Saturday 28th July The comfortable win that the Pies [$1.01, -88.5 @ 1.91] expected was forthcoming with a 120 point win over GWS [$26.00, +88.5 @ 1.91] up at Skoda Stadium. Not too much analysis to be had from this one, GWS are a steadily weakening team and it has been profitable going against them with most of the damage against them coming in the last quarter of games. Cloke back to some form, will want to carry this on to next week against plucky St. Kilda outfit. Early line was +/-95.5 with this quickly moving down through the week and finally settling pre-game at GWS +85.5 @ 1.877 vs Collingwood -85.5 @ 2.030, a number we liked – taking Collingwood -85.5 points investing 21 to win 20 units.
Saturday 28th July Sydney [$1.05, -50.5 @ 1.91] powered over the top of the Gold Coast Suns [$11.00, +50.5 @ 1.91] up on the Gold Coast, with an 8 goal 3rd quarter clearing the path for a comfortable 72 point victory. Adam Goodes was a casualty on the day along with Sam Reid – the former injuring his hamstring, and the latter with knee trouble. GCS were not statistically dominated on paper, but were on the scoreboard. Pre-game we envisioned this being closer. Early betting market had them +/-46.5, late line showing Suns +50.5 @ 1.87 vs Swans -50.5 @ 2.04.
Saturday 28th July Nice night for football at the MCG, with Richmond [$1.52, -12.5 @ 1.91] vs Carlton [$2.60, +12.5 @ 1.91]. A real thriller for the duration, with Richmond thinking they had done enough until a opportunistic last minute goal from Brock McLean. Yet to catch the replay of this one, but the ending looks to have been a thriller. Tigers were initial sportsbetting favourites with the early line of +/-9.5 pushing to a late line of Carlton +10.5 @ 2.04 vs Richmond-10.5 @ 1.87 indicating some late Richmond support.
Sunday 29th July Port Adelaide [$2.75, +12.5 @ 1.91] were back at AAMI hoping to get over the top of Fremantle [$1.47, -12.5 @ 1.91], but we were just looking for them to cover – taking Port +11.5 points investing 21 to win 20 units. A shocking first half labelled by Port coach Matt Primus as “the worst for the season” meant we were never really in the hunt on this one barring a dramatic second half turnaround, which didn’t eventuate. Early line of +/- 9.5 closing with Port +12.5 @ 2.00 vs Freo-12.5 @ 1.909.
Sunday 29th July Etihad Stadium was the scene of another hiding for the Western Bulldogs [$6.00, +36.5 @ 1.91] – going down by 76 points to St. Kilda [1.14, -36.5 @ 1.91], who keep their finals hopes alive. No opinion on this game after passing on the Bulldogs +35.5. The late line of +/- 36.5 was comfortably covered by the Saints as everyone got in on the act, and the WBD continue to struggle to cover – now failing at the line in their past 6 attempts. There needs to be a turning point for them somewhere, but at the moment they are getting beaten everywhere. Early line +/-33.5.
Sunday 29th July Unfortunate that we didn’t take the Eagles [$1.14, -37.5 @ 1.91] over the Lions [$6.00, +37.5 @ 1.91] on Sunday over in Perth. We hadn’t been able to do enough work on this particular match-up, so despite an initial strong lean towards West Coast, we didn’t move on this. For the record, the early line was +/-32.5, moving to Eagles -37.5 @ 1.952 vs Lions +37.5 @ 1.952 pre-bounce. Eagles crushed this, and took advantage of a Lions outfit that couldn’t handle the West Coast’s relentless pressure.
Favourites went 8 – 1 against the bookmaker’s handicap line. (Now 79 – 74 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up once.
At professionalgambler for round 18, we finished the round with 2 – 1 for +14 units, pushing our 2012 AFL only season record to 22-27, for -0.5 units.
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