“Congratulations, I knew that record would stand until it was broken” – Yogi Berra.
Round 18 of the 2012 AFL betting season is upon us and we preview things again. Very busy on the phone this morning, and was unable to get this posted up before the Saturday games commenced – but here it is… Better late than never.
Hawks are well favoured against the Bombers on the Friday night game of the week. Covering for 7 weeks straight now, it wouldn’t be totally unwise if you were to take them again as a momentum play. Committed and precise from defense, and versatile and accurate up forward… the only issue, as usual, is the points you need to lay. Laying what will be more than 30 points at the dome against an 8-8 ATS Essendon requires a second thought and some statistical work.
Geelong will welcome facing the Crows at home at Skilled/Simonds (or whatever they call it now). A genuine premiership contender, the Crows are missing Tippett again with concussion and will rely on Taylor Walker to provide the key forward option. Geelong are 0-4 ATS at Simonds in 2012 – which is surprising as they were 6-1 at the end of 2011. Should get a good read on Geelong’s work ethic leading up to the finals.
North Melbourne are strong at the Dome, and are laying 44.5 points. The turnaround from the Kangaroos has been nothing short of exceptional. Leaning North Melbourne at the moment, but still have some work to do on this one.
Taking the Giants in AFL betting has left you 1-5 after the bye, with an average loss of 93 points. This weekend you are laying around that against a Magpie team that is 1-4 after the bye, will not be at full strength, but will be smarting from their loss to the Hawks. Cloke and Dawes will relish finding some of the ball, the GWS will like being back at home after the Perth road trip. They are however, coming off a 6 – day break on top of the Perth trip.
The Saturday night MCG game, and I cannot see us having a line betting position on this game. We have put the fork in Carlton for the year, but are still tempted to take them. We do like them here despite missing Judd, and you are getting +6.5, which should only get better as the bounce approaches.
Sydney continue as the team that most forgot in 2012. Should have no problems at all with the Gold Coast up at Metricon, Swans would fancy themselves taking some good percentage from the game. However the Suns have had a few cheeky performances in 2012, and could put in here at home and keep within the line. Last time the margin between these two was 70 points.
Port Adelaide have been a poor sports betting proposition in 2012 at AAMI stadium, with a 3-6 record at home. It’s not the sign of a team that you can go with and then rest easy. Fremantle are 4-3 away from home and are coming off a training run vs GWS. The bookies have kept Port safe at this stage with a 9.5 line.
The Bulldogs have been great AFL betting fade material of late – having not saluted at the line in their last 5 outings. Disappointing to say the least. St. Kilda were terribly wasteful last week against Sydney – whilst still showing their usual fight and love of an arm-wrestle. They couldn’t finish off well enough despite having 60 inside 50s to the Swans 52. Marks inside 50 were telling – Sydney 15 vs St.Kilda 8. This is where the damage was done. St. Kilda will be looking to improve on this against the dogs this week.
The Sunday afternoon game in the west, and the bookmakers – rightly so – are not giving Brisbane much of a chance. We are keen to lay the points with West Coast at home, you would need to assume that the “old” Eagles are going to show up. Their last 3 weeks have been average at best, and Brisbane can claim the honors from their last meeting.
Good luck to all having a wager this weekend.
Follow along with late line movements/results on twitter https://twitter.com/progamblercomau