The 17th round for the 2012 season and things are going well considering that AFL betting in 2012 has been challenging. As has MLB for that matter… Hawks are flying and we are getting good returns from them. We also took Geelong – who have a lot to like about them – and Brisbane who were disappointing, especially when we pegged a double through them.
Friday 20 July The big Friday night game of Geelong vs Essendon wasn’t as close as many predicted. Geelong ran away with it and played sensational football. When Hawkins is finding it (and kicking straight – which is the main challenge), a lot of the work is done for the Cats. He’s such a presence. Anyway, to the lines, +/- 5.5 to open this game, and a late line of +/-3.5 @ 1.952. Respected opinions around the cats is that they are past it and won’t go far in the Finals. With some very tough games over the next few weeks, all will be revealed as far as this argument is concerned. Anyway, we took Geelong to win, investing 14 to win 15 units.
Saturday 21 July The game of the round was Collingwood vs Hawthorn. As a result of their performance in this clash, the clear grand final favourites are the Hawks, who are now $2.95 at Betfair in the premiers market after dominating the Magpies from start to finish. All without Buddy. Early line had this game at Hawks $1.80 vs Magpies $2.10, and the late line had Collingwood as the firmers at 1.901 vs an easing Hawthorn, out to 2.010. We took Hawthorn to win investing 21 to win 20 units.
Saturday 21 July Adelaide hosted a weakened West Coast Eagles at AAMI park, and all bookmakers had them as a 3 goal favourite. Tippett was back, but with Walker still missing the line seemed fairly set. In the end, it was a 49 point win, with Tippett suffering yet another concussion, and Bernie Vince picking up the slack with 4 goals. Late line had Adelaide -16.5 @ 1.952 vs West Coast +16.5 @ 1.952, and Adelaide covered this for the fourth time in a row. Early in the week things opened at +/-15.5.
Saturday 21 July Gold Coast hosted the Brisbane Lions up at Metricon Stadium, and our position on Brisbane Lions was a reasonably confident one – taking the Lions -26.5 pts investing 32.5 to win 30 units. We were to the right side of the line move with the late line of Gold Coast +29.5 @ 1.901 vs Brisbane -29.5 @ 2.010, moving 8 points from an early line of +/-21.5. In the end Brisbane just didn’t play all that well, without the focus or polish they needed early, allowing Gold Coast to come in with a sniff late and nearly even snatch it. We also concluded an unsuccessful double of Hawthorn/Brisbane -26.5 investing 11.5 to win 30 units.
Saturday 21 July Carlton will take their win over a struggling Western Bulldogs. Fading the Western Bulldogs has you with 5 straight wins of late, and it’s starting to look like a no-brainer fading them. Carlton, well – can you take them as an AFL betting proposition? Would much prefer taking the Saints this weekend as a set against the dogs, but that is another story. +/-15.5 was the early line on this game and the late line saw some very decent Bulldogs support, with +/-9.5 @ 1.952.
Saturday 21 July Melbourne went up against Port Adelaide and didn’t deliver up in Darwin, managing only 3 goals after quarter time to Port Adelaide’s 10, eventually going down by 28 points in a fairly slippery contest of not too high standard. Early lines had Port as -7.5 favourites, and the last line pre-game showing Demons +7.5 @ 1.971 vs Power -7.5 @ 1.935
Sunday 22nd July A frustrating game for St. Kilda fans, with the Saints trailing by less than 2 goals at half time and dominating the play for the bulk of the last half, were but unable to transfer this to the scoreboard. If you are a St. Kilda fan and you have any hair left after this game I would be very surprised. Despite 5 goals from Steven Milne, 8 more inside 50’s and the loss of Shane Mumford for the Swans, the Saints were disastrous going forward with the exception of Steven Milne, spraying shots for goal and turning the ball over. The should be better than this. Late AFL betting line had this game Sydney -18.5 @ 1.980 vs St. Kilda +18.5 @ 1.926, earlier in the week it was +/-15.5 points.
Sunday 22nd July A ripper of a game at the MCG, with North Melbourne and Richmond fighting it out in an old fashioned nail-biter. The classic agony and ecstasy pictures at games conclusion. Early in the week we had Richmond +4.5/North Melbourne -4.5, and the late line had them closer still, with Richmond +3.5 @ 1.962 vs North Melbourne 3.5 @ 1.943. After the game Hardwick said “we’ve got to start winning games”. Tigers still not enough reward for their efforts. Petrie great again.
Sunday 22nd July The last game for Sunday was Fremantle vs GWS – a game we were interested in – for the fact that fading the big GWS lines after the bye has been a sensational strategy with a 1-5 record ATS over that period. Not as comfortable this weekend, but Fremantle was still able to dominate on wide spaces at Patersons, and GWS are still struggling to put up a fight. Against Collingwood this week, GWS can expect to be close to +100. Against Fremantle the early line was +/-80.5, and the late line reflected the strong support for Fremantle – with the bookies showing Freo -95.5 @ 1.971 vs GWS +95.5 @ 1.935, with this very late line the only bets that didn’t get the cover.
Favourites went 6 – 3 against the bookmaker’s handicap line. (Now 71 – 73 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up twice.
At professionalgambler for round 17, we finished the round with 2 – 2 for -9 units, pushing our 2012 AFL only season record to 20-26, for -14.5 units.
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