A quick review of the AFL betting markets for Round 16 follows.
Prices in the sports betting markets were definitely on the move this week in AFL, and our investing turned around and we posted some welcome returns.
The round finished as follows.
Friday 13th July: An amazingly accurate North Melbourne [$2.15, +4.5 @ 1.91] defeated Carlton [$1.72, -4.5 @ 1.91] who were not able to follow up from their win over Collingwood the week prior. Drew Petrie snagged 7 as North Melbourne shot 24 goals 5 behinds to win by 53 points. Chris Judd’s “chicken wing” tackle was another big talking point. No position for us. Early line of +/- 6.5 lead to final line of Carlton -5.5 @ 2.00 vs Kangaroos +5.5 @ 1.909.
Saturday 14th July: Melbourne [$3.40, +21.5 @ 1.91] vs Fremantle [$1.33, -21.5 @ 1.91]. Melbourne fought this one out well early, until the loss of Jamar and Bennell caught up with them and the Dockers ran away with it in the final quarter. We took a line early on Melbourne +18.5 investing 22 to win 20 units. Early line for this game was +/-16.5 and the bookies had them at +/-20.5 @ 1.952 in late betting, in a line move of 4 points that saluted. Injuries cost us here.
Saturday 14th July: Interstate on Saturday we had Port Adelaide [$2.70, +13.5 @ 1.91] at home against Essendon [$1.47, -13.5 @ 1.91]. Essendon were only able to shake the Power in the final quarter to take a handy 4 points home with them, bouncing back from their heavy loss to St. Kilda the week before. Late line was Essendon -13.5 @ 1.962 vs Power +13.5 @ 1.943, with the early line of +/- 17.5 showing the move of 4 points in support of Port, which didn’t come in.
Saturday 14th July: A fairytale win for the Gold Coast [$5.15, +37.5 @ 1.91] with Karmichael Hunt kicking the winning goal after the siren (yes, that is not a typo) to score the Sun’s first win of the season over Richmond [$1.17, -37.5 @ 1.91] up in muggy Cairns. The early line was +/-32.5, moving out a point to a late line of Tigers -33.5 @ 1.885 vs Suns +33.5 @ 2.020. Big outright underdog winner.
Saturday 14th July: The big showdown of the round, the second Grand Final replay of Geelong [$2.75, +12.5 @ 1.91] hosting Collingwood [$1.48, -12.5 @ 1.91] at the MCG in front of 61,000 on Saturday night. Early line of +/-10.5 found plenty of Pies punters taking that sending it to +/-13.5 @ 1.952 at the bounce. Collingwood started sensationally and covered easily.
Saturday 14th July: Brisbane [$2.45, +9.5 @ 1.91] vs St. Kilda [$1.57, -9.5 @ 1.91] up at the Gabba. Opening line of +/-15.5 bet well down to a late line of +/-10.5 @ 1.952 as plenty of punters took the +points with the Lions. St. Kilda battled out a win, and covered the late line, as they tend to be able to do. Late move on the + side failing.
Sunday 15th July: A 10 goal last quarter from the Adelaide Crows [$1.02, -70.5 @ 1.91] despite the absence of Tippett and Walker saw a 119 point thrashing of GWS [$17.00, +17.5 @ 1.91] up at Skoda stadium. GWS are really tiring in games late and are struggling to keep things from really getting out of hand. Late line of 68.5 was in from the early week’s +/-80.5 after Tippett’s omission. We took Adelaide -68.5 investing 22 to win 20 units. Also taking Adelaide -68.5 / Hawthorn -50.5 double, investing 11.5 to win 30 units
Sunday 15th July: Our second position of Sunday had us supporting Hawthorn [$1.06, -49.5 @ 1.91] over the Western Bulldogs [$10.00, +49.5 @ 1.91] with a position of Hawthorn -50.5 pts investing 15.5 to win 15 units. Opening line here was +/-44.5, and latest line showing Bulldogs +49.5 @ 1.990 vs Hawks -49.5 @ 1.917. Supported well in the betting markets and covered well without Lance Franklin.
Sunday 15th July: Last game of the round over in Perth with Sydney [$2.18, +5.5 @ 1.91] taking it up strongly to West Coast [$1.72, -5.5 @ 1.91] with a brand of football that keeps standing up to serious tests. The early line of +/-11.5 finished at +/-3.5 @ 1.952 in a move that covered easily. Shuey suspended further weakened the Eagles injury marred side. Sydney in the mix for September in a big way.
Favourites went 6 – 3 against the bookmaker’s handicap line. (Now 65 – 70 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up three times.
At professionalgambler for round 16, we finished the round with 3 – 0 for +65 units, pushing our 2012 AFL only season record to 18-24, for -5.5 units.
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