“Investment is most prudent when it is most business-like” – Benjamin Graham.
Could be a quiet-ish week for Round 16 AFL betting. Not seeing many games that are very tempting and worth risking our units on. Liking the Fremantle / Demons spot, and have circled a game for Sunday. Will see what eventuates and how late changes affect the sportsbetting lines.
North Melbourne look nothing like the team that was thrown into chaos only 6 rounds ago at the hands of a 155 point Hawthorn demolition. They are the definition of “up and about” these past 3 weeks – committed, attacking, and well structured and coached. Carlton meanwhile, are just so frustrating for supporters and sports bettors alike. Capable of fantastic football, but just incapable of producing it with any regularity. Sure to be Ratten’s last year. North have the early support as slight underdogs, getting 5.5 points.
Melbourne are not historically great at Etihad Stadium, but then again – are not that great anywhere in recent history. This line would be slightly different were this played at the MCG, but still heavily favouring Fremantle. Are Melbourne able to get within 3 goals of a notoriously stingy Fremantle? Fremantle in 2012 under Ross Lyon have a scoring average of 78.6 points, giving some scope for the +points.
Port Adelaide not well favoured in the betting against the Bombers – but not as big dogs as would be expected if this Essendon team was more settled. Injuries to Hurley and Paddy Ryder and ongoing players on the disabled list (to borrow a term from Major League) puts Essendon set-ups under the spotlight and will require James Hird to put his thinking cap on. Port just want another win at home. We doubt they will get within 17 points, but let’s see.
Richmond dropped this game last year, which co-incidentally was the Gold Coast’s last win. Richmond was good, but inaccurate last week against the Demons. They will cope better this week with the heat off them as a result of the Dustin Martin storm in a teacup sleep in. The Gold Coast will take some confidence, but doubt it will be enough.
A nice tight line here for the Grand Final matchup, as you would expect. In the 2011 Grand Final, the Pies came in as a 2.5 point favourite, and were soundly beaten, with Geelong lifting on the big occasion. Cam Mooney talks about Geelongs ability to lift for the big games… could easily see this being the case again here, but the Cats have lost some of that grunt from 2011 with the likes of Ling, Ottens and Milburn retiring.
Up at the Gabba this week, St. Kilda would fancy themselves here. Brisbane will want to rebound after losing the wind from their sails against the Swans at the SCG last week, and St.Kilda will want to build on a strong win last week over Essendon. Brisbane at the Gabba ATS were 4-7 in 2010, 5-7 in 2011 and currently 4-3 in 2012 which is food for thought.
Although a certain win, we doubt we will be laying -70 odd points with an Adelaide team missing Taylor Walker and likely Kurt Tippett.
The bookmakers have put up 48.5 here – possibly in response to the Hawks covering in every one of their past 5 matches. The Hawks have been ruthless in punishing those below them on the ladder, and given the movement in this line already, punters are expecting more of the same here. The signs and numbers for the Bulldogs haven’t been great since the bye and you are getting a large number if you are interested in taking the line with the dogs.
West Coast got there barely last week in their battle down in Tasmania against North Melbourne. This week back at home, they face Sydney – who while on top of the ladder – almost seem like false ladder leaders with their lack of consideration in the media. Excellent last week against the Lions, could find things tough against the Eagles out west – who will be conscious of bringing their best game to cover injuries.
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