2012 continues to be a year of big turnarounds against the bookmakers line – this week Carlton and St. Kilda had good outright wins as pointspread underdogs, and Gold Coast also threatened to snatch a game off premiers Geelong. 2012 long term has also been a year for the ATS underdog, betting them blindly has been slightly profitable.
Friday 6th July: The game of the week was diasappointing for us with Carlton [$4.90, +28.5 @ 1.91] – a team we had supported for weeks in anticipation of a return to form – upsetting Collingwood [$1.19, -28.5 @ 1.91] as a big underdog, and breaking their four game losing run. When Betts, Walker, Yarran are all firing Carlton are going to win – or if not go very close, and Ratten and co would be ecstatic with them finding plenty of it. As it happens we threw in the towel on the Blues a week too early. The early line here was +/-31.5. This was the start of a 3 leg mulit, Collingwood Money Line / Essendon -18.5 pts / Adelaide Money Line : Investing 16.5 to win 30 units.
Saturday 7th July: North Melbourne [$2.65, +14.5 @ 1.91] are on a bit of run at the moment – covering in their last 3 games having won two of those games as an outright underdog as well. The Kangaroos started really well again, and nearly snatched this one. In contrast, the West Coast Eagles [$1.50, -14.5 @ 1.91] had a sloppy and lethargic start, and were jumped by the ‘roos early, with the deficit eventually blowing out to 35 points. In the end, like good teams tend to do, West Coast gets over the line by 2 points. Early line was +/-15.5, moving 2 points to North +13.5 @ 1.935 vs Eagles -13.5 @ 1.971 at game time.
Saturday 7th July: MCG game for Saturday, Richmond [$1.24, -31.5 @ 1.91] were strong favourites against Melbourne [$4.10, +31.5 @ 1.91] , and were really a good thing beaten in respect to the points spread – with shocking kicking for goal (13.23 at the final siren) basically costing the Tigers a handy win and an easy cover. +/-32.5 @ 1.952 was the final line after opening at +/-37.5 @ 1.91 early in the week (before Dustin Martin had his sleep in).
Saturday 7th July: Sydney Swans [$1.17, -34.5 @ 1.91] vs Brisbane [$5.10, +34.5 @ 1.91] at the SCG. The Lions played a strong first quarter, but couldn’t keep it up as the Swans powered away to a 47 point win. Going with winning form, we specced Brisbane at the moneyline, investing 10 to win 45 units. Simon Black was a very late exclusion. The late line had Sydney -34.5 @ 2.04 vs Brisbane +34.5 @ 1.87, early in the week the line opened at +/-30.5.
Saturday 7th July: The Saturday night menu of AFL betting featured the South Australian showdown – Port Adelaide [$4.10, +26.5 @ 1.91] vs Adelaide [$1.25, -26.5 @ 1.91]. With the line starting the week at +/-24.5, we took Port Adelaide +25.5 investing 15.5 to win 15 units. As has been the norm at the moment with our positions, we happened to run into a record breaking Adelaide ruckman Sam Jacobs’ 61 hit outs, dominating around the ground, and puttting to bed any chance of getting the cover.
Saturday 7th July: Steven Milnes’ 250th game against Essendon [$1.37, -19.5 @ 1.91] at the dome and St. Kilda [$3.20, +19.5 @ 1.91] were in the mood to celebrate a huge win in the circumstances. Turning around a form slump, overcoming losses to key defenders and Brendan Goddard, and breaking a 3 year hoodoo against the Bombers, St. Kilda slammed in a 71 point victory and the man of the moment and everyone’s favourite tip-rat bagged 5 majors. Injury to Hurley will worry Bombers fans. Early in the week you were laying +/-19.5, and the late betting line with this one was +/-18.5. Our position was Essendon -18.5 points, investing 20 to win 20 units, which struggled.
Sunday 8th July: Hawthorn [$1.01, -92.5 @ 1.91] vs GWS [$22.00, +92.5 @ 1.91] at the MCG and the biggest line of the week was comfortably covered by the Hawks, winning by a final margin of 162 points. Buddy Franklin off injured was the story of the round – with Hawthorn charged with risking him by playing him in this game whilst under an injury cloud. Early line was +/-90.5, late line of -93.5, which we took, investing 32 to win 30 units.
Sunday 8th July: Fremantle [$1.18, -32.5 @ 1.91] and Western Bulldogs [$5.20, +32.5 @ 1.91] matched up over at Paterson’s Stadium. The Bulldogs’ disappointing 2012 continued on with them not able to upset Fremantle, going down by 38 points in a game that always seemed to be flirting with the spread throughout the match. Early line was +/-29.5, late line +/-31.5. In the end Fremantle covers and keeps their finals hopes alive.
Sunday 8th July: Another big line for the week, Geelong [$1.03, -55.5 @ 1.91] travelled up to Metricon Stadium and had to come from behind at half-time to capture the four points against Gold Coast [$14.00, +55.5 @ 1.91]. Haven’t seen the replay yet, although early line was showing +/-56.5 and late lines had the sportsbetting market as Gold Coast +51.5 @ 1.943 vs Cats -51.5 @ 1.962.
Favourites went 4 – 5 against the bookmaker’s handicap line. (Now 59 – 67 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up twice.
At professionalgambler for round 15, we finished the round with 1-3 for -32 units, pushing our 2012 AFL only season record to 15-24, for -70.5 units.
Follow along on twitter https://twitter.com/progamblercomau