“You can play good, hard football and (still) get beaten sometimes” – Brett Ratten.
Round 15 AFL betting lines are as follows.
Growing pressure on Brett Ratten reaches fever-pitch surely this week with suggestions of a mid-season execution and Malthouse being thrown up as a possible replacement for 2014. Unfortunately, they face a Magpie team this Friday night that has now won 10 in a row, with Carlton having lost 6 of their last 7 games. On paper it would seem a horrible mis-match – but Carlton vs Collingwood at the MCG is never that simple regardless of ladder positions.
West Coast Eagles laying -15.5 points only on the back of some recent special form from North Melbourne – who have knocked off Adelaide and St.Kilda in quick succession. The last time North Melbourne went down to Tasmania they were utterly destroyed by Hawthorn. Such an erratic team – and markets hate uncertainty – leaves confident Eagles supporters with a good price here.
Tigers lose Dustin Martin for “sleeping in” essentially (if you believe the stories) and Melbourne will still need every one of the +32.5 points they are getting. Very little confidence in betting either of these teams at this line.
Sydney are coming in as heavy favourites against this Lions team that have played committed football these past few weeks. Lions will need all of the usual suspects up and about and then some if they are to get close – Sydney at home don’t lie down for anyone. Can Goodes recapture his best form?
Saints underdogs in the betting market – they have lost Goddard suspended, and is Riewoldt fully fit? Added to that are the loss to two key defenders in Blake and Stanley. Although always competitive, the team going in to celebrate Steven Milne’s 250th deserve to be underdogs, but are receiving some support in the betting. Essendon are flying with Jobe Watson crushing in on the Brownlow.
The Derby is here again, and the bookmakers have these two a fair distance apart in the in the betting. With the Crows having an upset loss against North Melbourne, and a shocking first half the week following against the Tigers, the Power would give themselves a fighting chance. These are normally close affairs, and a missing Taylor Walker is crucial.
The ravaging Hawthorn have been given the requisite GWS line of -89.5 points by the bookmakers this week, and there have been a few nibbles at this number already. Will Buddy play – if he does… well, you know.
Gold Coast Suns are getting +58.5 points hosting the Geelong Cats, and have proven to be a poor prospect covering lines in 2012. That leads us towards Geelong – a team just going in 2012, who have also struggled to cover. We lean suns here.
Bulldogs have a 31.5 point start against the Fremantle Dockers, with the bookmakers not giving them much chance of upsetting them over there at Patersons Stadium. Fremantle would want to put this one in the ledger and give them a nudge up the with some percentage. Big Pav in good form again this year.
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