We had the full nine games this week for round 14 and normalcy returns to AFL betting markets. We sat out Saturday and moved strongly on the Brisbane game, and tied it into North Melbourne.
Friday 29th June Another great Friday night contest, and we chased some value with Carlton [$3.70, +23.5 @ 1.91], backing them on the moneyline investing 14 to win 40 units. This was a small fade of a very short, and occasionally inconsistent Hawthorn [$1.30, -23.5 @ 1.91] more than a play on Carlton, but considering Carlton’s season numbers have been reasonable and have been closer of late with a narrow loss to West Coast we were happy with a little speculation on a Friday. Carlton beaten soundly. Early line of +/- 20.5 was snapped up on Hawthorn.
Saturday 30th June Fremantle [$7.50, +38.5 @ 1.91] returned to the scene of the crime at the MCG where they overcame a well-fancied Richmond, and had competed well against Essendon at home for 3 quarters last week. This time around though they faced Collingwood [$1.10, -38.5 @ 1.91] and didn’t have enough to salute at long odds but stayed in touch. Things are better with arguably the best coach in the AFL. Line was fairly stable at +/-38.5 all week.
Saturday 30th June Adelaide [$1.40, -17.5 @ 1.91] hoping to make amends for their poor showing against North Melbourne last week, had a much better time of it against Richmond [$3.05, +17.5 @ 1.91]. Despite trailing by 33 points early in the game – eventually the Crows ran out to cover with a 19 point win. Taylor Walker will miss through suspension thanks to a reckless tackle. Early line was +/- 16.5.
Saturday 30th June West Coast hosted the Gold Coast, and things promised to get ugly – and things did. We were very close to laying the -71.5 points with West Coast, but decided to pass and knew within the first quarter that a comfortable cover was on the cards. There are real performance problems for the Gold Coast, and Malcom Blight has been sent to the coaches box in an intervention move to push for some improvement. Betting line early in the week of +/-68.5 points finished late with Eagles -72.5 @ 1.885, Suns +72.5 @ 2.020 on the back of late Eagles support.
Saturday 30th June Sydney [$1.01, -69.5 @ 1.91] vs Greater Western Sydney [$21.00, +69.5 @ 1.91] and it’s a tough betting proposition. We didn’t touch it. Late line was Sydney -70.5 @ 2.010 vs Giants +70.5 @ 1.901 out from +/- 64.5 and again, a move to the right side.
Saturday 30th June Saturday night game in Melbourne, Essendon [$1.18, -29.5 @ 1.91] were strongly fancied against the struggling Western Bulldogs [$4.95, +29.5 @ 1.91] and comfortably covered the bookmakers line and continued the theme of favourites covering. The line finished with the Bombers -30.5 @ 1.909 having moved from -28.5 early in the week.
Sunday 1st July Geelong [$1.04, -51.5 @ 1.91] hosting Port Adelaide [$11.00, +51.5 @ 1.91] where the Cats have a habit of destroying teams. 51.5 proved a bit too much for a dark, wet weather game, with the Cats never really breaking away with any significant lead. +/-48.5 on offer early in the week.
Sunday 1st July Brisbane’s [$1.25, -28.5 @ 1.91] chances went from good to great with Melbourne [$4.10, +28.5 @ 1.91] affected by a couple of crucial late changes that weakened a team that was already missing big forward target Mitch Clarke. We jumped on the Lions – who we had already planned to take – when the line only adjusted immediately 3 to 4 points as a result of these changes, taking Brisbane -33.5 investing 26 to win 25 units. Also 2 doubles : Brisbane -33.5 / North Melbourne + 18.5 investing 12 to win 30 units, and Brisbane -33.5 / North Melbourne to win investing 8.5 to win 40 units. Late lines saw the bookmakers move this to -35.5 @ 1.926 having started the week at +/-23.5 points.
Sunday 1st July. North Melbourne [$3.10, +19.5 @ 1.91] have to be respected after their victory over Adelaide. They have now claimed two big scalps at Etihad – after also beating Geelong there in round 3. No doubting they were sensational last week, and as big underdogs against a team not that far ahead of them in St.Kilda [$1.37, -19.5 @ 1.91], the play here is the Kangaroos – albeit pegged on the back of Lions -33.5. This line stated the week at +/- 18.5 and finished there as well. North were committed and really enjoyed the win so congratulations to them.
Favourites went 6 – 3 against the bookmaker’s handicap line. (Now 55 – 62 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up once.
At professionalgambler for round 14, we had four sports investments – finishing the round with 3-1 for +81 units, and taking our 2012 AFL only season record to 14-21, -38.5 units.
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