“If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians.” – Warren Buffett.
Round 14 is upon us in a season of AFL that is just flying by, as it always does. As members would know, MLB (US baseball) takes up the majority of our sports investment turnover during AFL season, but going back to 9 games a round should see us involved this week.
The prices on offer for round 14 2012 are as follows.
Carlton is picking up somewhat falling 10 points shy of West Coast and 12 points shy of Geelong in their last couple of weeks, but have still only taken out the 4 points in one of their past 6 games. They remain a talented team on the backfoot, and their numbers are not overly terrible on the important longer terms trends. With Carlton at longer prices for a night game, speccing the moneyline market would be our early lean against a very short Hawthorn.
Adelaide will be wanting to make amends for their poor showing against North Melbourne last week. What will this mean for sports betting markets? A slow start this weekend will not do. Richmond lead the league in handballs and total disposals, and are patient in their buildup heading out of the backline. Will this translate to less possessions for Adelaide and keep this one close? Laying -17.5 with two quality forwards in the Adelaide line-up seems attractive, but the x-factor is Jack Riewoldt.
Collingwood hosting Fremantle at the MCG could end ugly – the potential of lines closing in on 40 points threaten as blowouts, and the firepower of the Pies is daunting with that in mind. We like how the Dockers are playing under Ross Lyon, as evident by their tackle count average being highest in the league, indicating that they are playing switched on footy. Big moneyline underdogs, and laying -38.5 points, we will wait on the weather.
A potential hiding afoot if these betting lines are spot on. -72.5 is one of the bigger lines of the season, and in laying big lines one must be careful of the potential for a “backdoor cover” when the game is on ice late. Less likely with teams such as Gold Coast and GWS who tire more easily than the other experienced teams. Covering the -72.5 shouldn’t be too much for the Eagles with Gold Coast currently 4-8 against the line so far in 2012
The sports betting line for the Sydney Swans vs GWS Giants game is a similarly hefty one – not far off the actual margin of their first encounter in Round 1 (63 points). Sydney did play some poor football in that first encounter, but the Giants have improved since that error-riddled first hit out. 9-3 against the spread has GWS as fantastic outperformers in 2012 and have to be respected. Likely we will not touch this one.
Essendon are flying, and the punters will be coming for them later in the week when teams are officially released. Bulldogs are looking weak, and although 2012 AFL betting has been an underdogs pointspread year thus far, it would be hard to make a case for the Bulldogs +points. Jobe Watson in super form and constantly causes headaches.
Geelong facing Port Adelaide down at the fortress that is Kardinia Park / Skilled Stadium / Simonds Stadium ;-). Sports investing often involves doing what is difficult, and in this match-up taking the points with Port Adelaide is the contrarian, difficult move. But could be the smart one. Port haven’t been disgraceful and have even had a couple of cheeky wins. Take the +51.5 with Port at first glance, with more certainty if it is wet.
Lions are the rage in the betting this week, and deservedly so by virtue of the ongoing weakness of the Melbourne side – compounded further through the loss of Mitch Clarke through injury, and the game being played at the Gabba. The Lions will come into this game with 5 wins on the board, 4 more than Melbourne, and we like the talent of Brisbane. Jack Watts running amok and Melbourne playing their best team game of the year would be the Demons only chance.
Etihad stadium, here we come, and a great game to round out the week. St. Kilda at home against North Melbourne. The Kangaroos will be out there to prove that last week wasn’t a fluke, and we can see them switched on for this one. Consistency is an element they lack, so going with them is not entirely without risk. They have played some great footy at the dome and should bring a good game up to St. Kilda – who love a tough contest and their style of play has them attacking more than years past under Lyon. You are getting just over 3 goals head start.
Great to be back to a full board of AFL this week.
Follow along with late line movements/results on twitter https://twitter.com/progamblercomau