Monday 24th July 2017,
Dr Sport

Round 12 AFL 2012 in Review – Sportsbetting Markets and Sports Investment Results.

Another round of unlucky finishes for us. Good analysis going unrewarded is the most frustrating thing about sports investment.

All we will do is keep going. We will get ours.

Thursday 14th June, A Thursday night game from over in Perth, with West Coast [$1.30, -22.5 @ 1.91] facing off against Carlton [$3.70, +22.5 @ 1.91] in an entertaining game. Carlton lead in stages after a poor opening quarter, much of it to do with Carazzo’s return having an immediate impact. He found plenty of it in the midfield and had a team high 28 disposals and took the ball inside 50 with effect. West coast clawed back to salute by 10 points. +/- 25.5 was available earlier in the week, and late line was +/-22.5. We invested 14.5 to win 40 units on the Carlton moneyline.

Friday 15th June and we had some action again, taking the Adelaide Crows -12.5 pts investing 26 to win 25 units. Adelaide [$1.50, -11.5 @ 1.91] hosting St. Kilda [$2.65, +11.5 @ 1.91] only laying 12.5 was a good proposition and played out like it for 90% of the game, before the Crows let St. Kilda back into estimations late in the game. To the Saints credit they are a determined, blue collar team that had that never say die approach- fantastic when coming off the the 6 day break. They kicked 6 goals in the last to the Crows 1, evaporating a 5 goal lead and sinking our cover.

Saturday 16th June Richmond Tigers [$1.05, -52.5 @ 1.91] not surprisingly started as huge away favourites against GWS [$11.00, +52.5 @ 1.91] and were just good enough to fall in for the 4 points in a wet slog that would have scared tiger fans. Late lines had Richmond laying 51.5 points in the wet. Early in the week the line was +/- 58.5. No position here for us.

Saturday 6th June  Saturday night and North Melbourne [$1.17, -36.5 @ 1.91] also had a scare, sneaking home over the Gold Coast [$5.25, +36.5 @ 1.91] at Metricon Stadium. Leading by 18 points at the final change, North Melbourne saw the lead slip to 7 points by the final siren. Late lines Suns +36.5 @ 2.010, Kangaroos -36.5 @ 1.901 indicating some late money for North. Early week line was +/-38.5.

Sunday 7th June and the MCG was the venue for Hawthorn [$1.07, -50.5 @ 1.91] v Brisbane [$9.00, +50.5 @ 1.91], in wet conditions. Our speculative position of Hawthorn win bracket 1-39 points, investing 11.5 to win 25 units just didn’t get there with the Lions unable to keep going in the second half, (or essentially after their reasonable first quarter), and the rain unfortunately didn’t effect the outcome enough. There was little movement on this line throughout the week, hovering around the +/- 49.5 to 50.5 mark. Hawthorn ran out 65 point winners in a solid performance.

Sunday 7th June and the late afternoon game of Western Bulldogs [$1.43, -16.5 @ 1.91] vs Port Adelaide [$2.95, +16.5 @ 1.91]. Not a lot of movement or interest from the punters with this game also as far as line movement was concerned. The Bulldogs’ poor kicking kept Port Adelaide in it for much longer than they should have been. Good to see Brian Lake performing again. Dogs by 38 points.

Favourites went 2 – 4 against the bookmaker’s handicap line. (Now 47 – 55 for the season).

Moneyline underdogs didn’t win straight up.

At professionalgambler for round 12, we had three sports investments – finishing the round 0-3 for -52 units, and taking our 2012 AFL only season record to 11-18, -79 units.

Follow along on twitter https://twitter.com/progamblercomau

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