A reasonable week, but we are a bit bitter that Collingwood couldn’t play just another 30 seconds of defence to cover the -46.5 for us… don’t they know there is an important sports investment line they should endeavour to cover? hehe 😉
This middle portion of the season – post bye – is when we can generally put a few more units into play as teams put up very genuine performances in the run to the finals. We should find some good value in the coming weeks, and then through finals.
Friday 8th June at Etihad Stadium Carlton [$2.80, +14.5 @ 1.91] hosted Geelong [$1.45, -14.5 @ 1.91] and started well. Eventually the Blues errors in front of goal, including a Sherrin that seemed to be intent on continually hitting the post, contributed to a 12 point loss. Good to see Judd and Betts finding it, the latter with 4 goals. Geelong with characteristic fight from the usual suspects. Line opened early in the week at +/-12.5, and the late betting lines had Geelong -15.5 @ 1.909, and Carlton +15.5 @ 2.00. A 10 point win saw all Carlton line betting positions cover, regardless of the number taken.
Saturday 9th June at the MCG, visiting Fremantle [$4.60, +31.5 @ 1.91] were hosted by Richmond [$1.20, -31.5 @ 1.91] at a cold and wet MCG. Fremantle controlled the game through sheer intensity and it’s lockdown style which suited the conditions. The Tigers were smothered. We invested 11 to win 40 units on the Fremantle moneyline – loving the value there. The late line showed Richmond -30.5 @ 1.952 and Fremantle +30.5 @ 1.952, with the early line in the week +/-28.5.
Saturday 9th June St.Kilda [$1.10, -43.5 @ 1.91] had the Gold Coast [$7.40, +43.5 @ 1.91] this week, a team that Gary Ablett Jnr is basically carrying on his own shoulders. Early line for this game was the +/- 45.5, and late betting line pregame was Suns +42.5 @ 1.952 and Saints -42.5 @ 1.952. Some betting support for the Suns, but the Saints crushed it as Riewoldt kicked 7.
Saturday 9th June Essendon [$1.50, -12.5 @ 1.91] had a real Jekyll and Hyde performance against Sydney [$2.65 +12.5 @ 1.91] at Etihad Stadium, with Essendon coming back in dramatic and unbelievable fashion after trailing by 48 points in the 3rd quarter (see it here http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IrcCYgrw25I from about 5 minutes in). As for sports investment, movements on the line in this game: an early betting line of +/- 9.5 moved to Bombers -12.5 @ 1.885 vs Sydney +12.5 @ 2.020 as money kept coming for Essendon, in a move that didn’t get paid off.
Sunday 10th June Hawthorn [$1.25, -26.5 @ 1.91] in cruise control at AAMI stadium comfortably covered the line against Port Adelaide [$4.00, +26.5 @ 1.91]. The betting market was fairly stable throughout the week, punters wary of laying Port at home – opening at +/- 27.5 and a late line that had little action affecting it, at +/-26.5 (with Hawthorn slight favourites at the line).
Monday 11th June Melbourne [$8.25, +46.5 @ 1.91] and Collingwood [$1.08, -46.5 @ 1.91] and their traditional Queen’s Birthday Holiday clash at the MCG. We invested in Collingwood -46.5 pts risking 21 to win 20 units, and had this taken away late with Melbourne taking the backdoor cover due to lazy Collingwood defence late. Melbourne weren’t overly terrible, but were jumped convincingly in the first quarter to the tune of 6 goals to 0. The late betting line of Melbourne +48.5 @ 1.901, Collingwood – 48.5 @ 2.010, had come in from +/- 52.5 early in the week.
Favourites went 2 – 4 against the bookmaker’s handicap line. (Now 45 – 51 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up twice.
At professionalgambler for round 11, we had the two sports investments – finishing 1-1 for +19 units, and taking our 2012 AFL only season record to 11-15, -27 units.
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