“Look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy; profit from folly rather than participate in it.” – Warren Buffet.
Buddy Franklin, is back in town. Kept quiet for too long, he rampaged on Saturday against a North Melbourne team that just… well, sucked badly. Slotting 13.4, this performance sends him straight to the top of the Coleman table and sharpens the Hawks up quite a bit in the Premiers 2012 sports betting market – which we will take a look at below.
Our sports betting focus here at professionalgambler.com.au rarely has us taking a Premiers, Brownlow or any other type of future bet. Not only would it tie up funds for an entire season that could be deployed elsewhere short term, but we also avoid the situation of members joining up mid-year and finding out they have missed a (potential) winning position just by virtue of a late sign on. Were we to hedge out later in the year they would not be able to participate.
Regardless of this stance, betting a futures market during the season in a sport such as AFL or NFL, almost always means you are taking an important stand on how the team in question will perform in the week or two following your bet. Poor performance in the weeks following your bet will lead to a better price being available (should you still want to bet the team), meaning you have taken unders. In the case of terrible performance, you may find yourself second guessing your initial bet.
On the other side of the coin, a couple of strong performances could lead to you laying the selection on Betfair for a risk free profit, or you could relax in the knowledge that you took the near top of the market if you decide to sit with your position.
The following two charts show Betfair’s 2012 Premiers sports betting market reaction to Buddy’s 13 goal haul on both i) the Saturday evening on the day of the game, and ii) the Sunday evening following the game.
In the chart above, you can find the Hawks shorten up a full $1 by Saturday evening in the 2012 Premiers market following Franklin’s 13 goals. (Looking to the very right of the chart).
By Sunday evening the Hawks had firmed further as interest in backing them at healthy 5’s for the flag consolidated as punters had time to evaluate the Hawks premiership in light of a fit – and now firing – Lance Franklin. In summary, the market moved in from 6.80/7.00 pre-round 10, to the current quote of 5.40 over two days.
Sure – Hawthorn is not a one man show, and without the 13.4 from Buddy the Hawks still would have likely delivered a thrashing and trimmed up in the market as a result. But there is no denying the awesome performance of possibly the games best player, kicking them from everywhere and just crushing it, and it leading to some excitement and market fluctuation.
When taking a future such as AFL premiers bet, please consider the short term along with the season view. While you might not see a reaction like the one above, short term performance effects long term market prices. This can allow you to take strategic positions if you “look at market fluctuations as your friend rather than your enemy”.
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