Tuesday 25th July 2017,
Dr Sport

Round 9 AFL 2012 in Review – Sportsbetting Markets and Sports Investment Results.

So how was round 9 AFL 2012? Pretty average from a sports investment point of view with our team’s selections going 0-3, which happens occasionally. North switching right off and failing to cover from a position 58 points in front early in the third term is not something we’ll have to suffer through too often. Easy AFL wins weren’t on the radar for us this week, and have to keep working until we get them falling our way again. Having a fantastic year regardless (81-70-8, +34.4% since 2012 records began post-superbowl), so we look forward, not back.

Round 9 AFL sports betting markets in summary were as follows:

Friday 25th May night game with Geelong [$1.16, -29.5 @ 1.91] wanting to turn in a win after two losses in a row, and saw this as a bit of a danger game with the Western Bulldogs [$5.25, +29.5 @ 1.91] finding a bit of form of late. The line opened early in the week with Geelong -30.5, and at the bounce had moved to -28.5 @ 2.11, a small move that didn’t result in a cover as the Cats had to fight to the finish before recording their 20 point win. Nervous times for those taking the $1.16. Bulldogs certainly played with some momentum at times, looking promising. We sat this out.

Saturday 26th May Richmond [$3.65, +22.5 @ 1.91] were able to dominate Hawthorn [$1.28, -22.5 @ 1.91] at the MCG on a bit of a blustery Saturday. There were many reasons to think Hawthorn would cover, with them being 6-2 at the spread (line) so far this year and the late line of Hawks -22.5 @ 1.917 vs Tigers +22.5 @ 1.990 was attractive enough. Tiger’s had something to say about that, and we invested 16.5 to win 15 units on the Hawks and were in trouble early. Richmond now 7-2 ATS.

Saturday 26th May Gold Coast [$2.50, +13.5 @ 1.91] hosted Port Adelaide [$1.55, -13.5 @ 1.91] up at Metricon Stadium, with the line barely moving from +/-14.5 points earlier in the week. Seeking revenge for their loss to the Gold Coast last year, Port covered easily, running out 48 point winners. We had wanted to give Port -13.5 to members, but were restricted by not wanting to have too many units in play – considering the 75 units of MLB action on the day. When you have a bad week the plays you pass on will always salute 😉

Saturday 26th May St. Kilda [$2.00, +2.5 @ 1.91] was keen to find a win for Lenny Hayes in his 250th against Sydney [$1.80, -2.5 @ 1.91] at Etihad stadium. We had been liking the Swans’ numbers, so risked a position of 15.5 to win 15 units. Unfortunately the Swans didn’t produce the form to support those numbers. Saints started slight favourites at 1.935 vs Sydney 1.971, and are having a respectable 2012.

Saturday 26th May Collingwood [$2.8, +14.5 @ 1.91] travelled to take on the Adelaide Crows [$1.45, -14.5 @ 1.91] on Saturday night. We liked the Collingwood moneyline here, but as we said, weren’t able to risk any more units on the day. The ‘Pies opened early in the week at +10.5, and finished at +13.5 @ 2.07 vs Adelaide Crows -13.5 @ 1.847, winning against the line move as an outright underdog.

Saturday 26th May Greater Western Sydney [$26.00, +68.5 @1.91] at the new Skoda Stadium drew a moderate crowd for their match-up against the Bombers [$1.01, -68.5 @ 1.91]. Bookies were spot with this one, as the ball was in the Essendon forward line in the dying moments, one more goal and they would have covered. No action for us here.

Sunday 27th May North Melbourne [$1.24, -26.5 @ 1.91] at Etihad Stadium fought off a late and unlikely challenge from the Brisbane Lions [$4.15, +26.5 @ 1.91], and as discussed, almost squandered a huge lead. It is worrying that this repeated after last weeks capitulation to Port Power. We took Kangaroos -26.5 points, investing 20.5 to win 20 units. The early week sports betting line was +/- 24.5.

Sunday 27th May The game at the MCG with Carlton [$1.06, -49.5 @ 1.91] and Melbourne [$9.50, +49.5 @ 1.91] in a scrappy contest. The blues did all of the heavy lifting to cover the line in the last quarter, with 7 goals to 3 Melbourne behinds. This Melbourne +55.5 line had plenty of support during the week, with the late line +49.5 @ 2.04 Melbournevs -49.5 @ 1.87 Carlton. This moved looked the right side for most of the game until the late Demon fadeout. No bets for us.

Sunday 27th May WA late derby, Fremantle [$3.05, +18.5 @ 1.91] vs West Coast Eagles [$1.38, -18.5 @ 1.91]. Early line on this game was +/-17.5, so no major movement. An upset wasn’t to be for this Derby here, with the Eagles pounding in a big cover and the heat turning up on Ross Lyon. No bets here either for us.

Favourites went 3 – 6 against the bookmakers handicap line. (Now 39 – 42 for the season).

Moneyline underdogs won straight up three times.

For the professionalgambler team in round 9, three sports investments – and we went 0-3 for -52.5 units, and taking our 2012 AFL only season record to 8-13, -64.5 units.

Follow along on twitter https://twitter.com/progamblercomau


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