Monday 24th July 2017,
Dr Sport

Round 8 AFL 2012 in Review – Sportsbetting Markets and Sports Investment Results.

We attended last Sunday’s Crows/Blues match-up on official sports investment business – wanting to see this Adelaide team from ground level, up close and working hard.

Adelaide – to their credit – were impressive in many areas, and are a massive team physically. Carlton – equally unimpressive. Not that the Blues have any wholesale issues apart from some passenger football and a need to return to the MCG and find some good lateral movement again. The reality of a few losses could be just the medicine needed to straighten up, especially given the absence of Murphy and Carazzo.

Dreamtime at the ‘G is building as the number two non-finals blockbuster behind the ANZAC day clash, proven again in this round with a monster crowd and a game that definitely has that X-factor.

And for our sports investment positions, let’s recap round 8 2012.

Friday May 18th – The Grand Final rematch of Geelong [$2.15, +5.5 @ 1.91] vs Collingwood [$1.70, -5.5 @ 1.91] at the MCG. In a way we were happy to see a sharp line early in the week (having estimated a line of +/-7 points ourselves), not having to take a side ourselves in what would be a tight contest. The late line drifted in support of Collingwood (and the withdrawal of Scarlett), to -9.5 @ 1.962, a full 5 point move from the opening line of -4.5. Final margin of 12 saw this move cover.

Saturday May 19th North Melbourne [$1.48, -13.5 @ 1.91]  just died against Port Adelaide [$2.65, +13.5 @ 1.91] over in Adelaide after leading by 27 points early in the final term. There was a touch of support for Port during the week, but no real move. No action here for us.

Saturday May 19th. We had been eagerly awaiting the Hawthorn [$1.18 -29.5 @ 1.91] vs Fremantle [$4.90, +29.5 @ 1.91] clash since spying the early +/-27.5  released on Monday. Come game day’s weather analysis, we jumped on the -31 points on Saturday morning investing 21 to win 20 units. Late lines had Hawthorn -29.5 @ $2.00 vs Fremantle +29.5 @ 1.909.

Saturday May 19th Saw the worst effort of 2012 from Melbourne [$8.00, +41.5 @ 1.91] as they travelled to Sydney [$1.08, -41.5 @ 1.91] and got smashed up. A final line of -40.5 @2.00 Sydney, +40.5 @ 1.909 Melbourne showed slight action towards Melbourne. They are now 2-6 against the bookmaker’s line. We sat this out.

Saturday May 19th  Dreamtime at the ‘G and both teams delivered a huge performance, where Essendon [$1.45, -14.5 @ 1.91] was able to find just a little bit more to hang on as Richmond [$2.85, +14.5 @ 1.91] kept coming in the last quarter and nearly snatched it. This game was a good illustration of how momentum can play its role in games – teams such as the Tigers in this spot going on extended runs within the game that are very difficult to stop. Huge momentum swing also got Port home this week, and is an impact teams like Melbourne are really struggling to find in their games. Late lines had the Bombers supported in to -12.5 @ 1.833 and the Tigers +12.5 @ 2.090. We stayed quiet here after considering Bombers -12.5, before passing.

Saturday May 19th Western Bulldogs [$1.13, -36.5 @ 1.91] overcame slippery conditions in Darwin to get over the Gold Coast Suns [$6.00, +36.5 @ 1.91]. Really affected by the humidity and the fact the Bulldogs asked for the ground to be watered just before the game, the standard of football was quite poor. Late lines -35.5 @ 1.826 Western Bulldogs and +35.5 @ 2.10, with the slight move towards the ‘Dogs covering – if only just. The earliest line on this game was +/-32.5. No sports investment for us here.

Sunday May 20th Brisbane [$1.15, -35.5 @ 1.91] was able to separate themselves as a class above GWS [$5.75, +35.5 @ 1.91] at the Gabba on Sunday afternoon. We jumped on this early Sunday morning, laying -35.5 with Brisbane investing 24 to win 20 units.  We downgraded our investment slightly after having seen this move all the way from +/-30.5 on Monday when monitoring markets and weather on Sunday morning.

Sunday May 20th Carlton [$1.45, -14.5 @ 1.91] hosted Adelaide [$2.75, +14.5 @ 1.91] at Etihad stadium, with the the Crows eager to prove themselves in the big games here in Melbourne – and did so resoundingly. A game Carlton would rather forget – not only for the result but what looks to be a season-ending injury to Murphy, Adelaide controlled clearances and pressured and choked up the Blues midfield and kept at it. +/-17.5 early in the week, late lines showed -14.5 @ 1.862 Carlton, +14.5 @ 2.050 Adelaide. We weren’t interested in taking a position.

Sunday May 20th Late game from the west, with the West Coast Eagles [$1.40, -17.5 @ 1.91] hosting St. Kilda [$2.95, +17.5 @ 1.91]. No interest from us on this game, and West Coast ran out 30 point winners after having been up 49 points at half time. Now 3-1 ATS at Patterson’s Stadium, the Eagles enjoy back to back home games against Fremantle – who are getting +18.5 points.

Favourites went 7 – 2 against the bookmakers handicap line. (Now 36 – 36 for the season).

Moneyline underdogs won straight up twice.

For the professionalgambler team in round 8, having two sports investments – we went 2-0 for +40 units, and taking our 2012 AFL only season record to 8-10, -12 units.

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