“Dons dare to dream… Tough, top of the ladder – could this be Essendon’s year?” – AFL homepage, Sunday May 20th.
Essendon are really finding something. It was only 4 rounds ago that they were 40.5 point underdogs at the MCG to Carlton. Having just watched the dreamtime game last night (as this post goes up slightly overdue on a bright and early Sunday morning!), the Bombers are displaying many qualities that sports betting participants like: Adherence to a gameplan, trust in a good coach, a quality captain and effort across the ground.
Enough about the ‘Dons though. We are here for profits, so let’s get to the round 8 lines.
The grand final rematch – where elements such as disappointment, revenge, passion and the respect all feed into the contest. A hell of a game to handicap. We stayed away.
Don’t really want to back either of these teams if we can help it. We find North Melbourne to be a little over-rated when we look at our numbers, and Port Adelaide have quickly deteriorated since the ’07 grand final appearance. Stay away.
Hawthorn head back to redeem themselves in Tassie. Laying a few points, although they are the team you want to be betting this side of +/-30 points in this match up. Gibson back helps.
Sydney Swans host the terrible (but improving?) Melbourne Demons up at the SCG. Melbourne are not a team you can take anything under +100 on and rest easy, as they are already 2-5 against the line – despite getting +40/+50 points regularly. Mark Neeld must be feeling it – despite not being sackable you’d guess for at least until the end of the season.
The Bulldogs take on the Suns up in Darwin. Not liking this match up – or location, so no really strong opinion there for us on this one.
Dreamtime at the ‘G. A great game to watch generally – any of these special games, ANZAC day, Dreamtime, tend to deliver a great contest. The betting line above has Essendon as 2 goal favourites – and is a position our team tends to agree is spot on. If you are heading to the game and must have a bet – lay the -12.5 points and go with Essendon.
The Lions are in desperate need of covering a line – much like Melbourne. We have dropped units on them once down here against Essendon. Our opinion since then has turned and we are more looking to fade them when possible in our sports investments. But this is GWS, and would have to be the Lions’ best chance at getting a nice win on the board.
A game we will attend – we need to see this Adelaide team in person. Laying -16.5 with the Blues at Etihad – and the Blues need to stop this slide if they are to play finals footy from a good position. Last time Adelaide travelled they caused a huge upset up in Sydney. Bookies more careful this time offering 3.01.
West Coast Eagles were -16.5 point favourites as of Thursday’s sports betting line. After suffering their first loss in a dramatic drubbing at the hands of Essendon – including a goalless third term, the Eagles will be keen to make amends. Anyone serious about sports investment knows that there are plenty of traps, including “recency bias“. The West Coast Eagles are not to be defined by their last performance.
All the best in round 8 gang,
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