We won’t have too many fond memories from Round 7 of AFL 2012, with 3 small – but losing – positions for the AFL weekend. When your entire performance for all sports is on public record at twitter, and then you have an average time of it… it’s a fantastic opportunity to preach the most basic of our sports investment rules – keep going with the next thousand positions.
You see, it doesn’t really matter once the game is over. A sports bettor can have a great read on the game, and just fall victim to bad luck… or maybe your analysis was in fact off. Even more impressive, is when the team you have faded outplays the team you are wagering on using an ingenious coaching strategy. However you arrive at it the losing position doesn’t really matter – variance dictates that you can expect there to be some pretty average weeks in each season of every sport.
What we can control is our attitude (long term), our focus (upcoming games), and our purpose (profits). Mastery of an endeavour involves not letting poor performances of the past negatively affect your future results. Being caught up in the past means you cannot focus on what lies ahead, and is something we all need to be on the lookout for when wagering.
Friday May 11th Melbourne [$13.00, +51.5 @ 1.91] and Hawthorn [$1.03, -51.5 @ 1.91] fought it out at the MCG. +/-49.5 was the first line we saw earlier in the week. Not sure what the hawks are up to, as they cover this easily, and could have been more damaging.
Saturday May 12th Adelaide [$2.25, +7.5 @ 1.91] hosted a weak Geelong [$1.67, -7.5 @ 1.91] at AAMI stadium. This line moved all the way to a pick situation, with Geelong $1.935 very slight favourites over Adelaide $1.971 on the back of Scarlett and Bartel withdrawing. Cats were shocking and we sacrificed -23 units (Geelong moneyline) and -18 units (Geelong/North double). Adelaide forward combination of Tippet and Walker difficult to match up, and Geelong had their worst day in a long time.
Saturday May 12th and we had the battle of the new boys, GWS [$3.80, +24.5 @ 1.91] at home to the Gold Coast Suns [$1.27, -24.5 @ 1.91]. GWS ran away with this one and registered their first win in the AFL. Opening line had Gold Coast laying -16.5, which was obviously snapped up fast upon the inclusion of Gary Ablett.
Saturday May 12th at the MCG with Sydney [$2.05, +2.5 @ 1.91] and Richmond [$1.80, -2.5 @ 1.91] clashing. Richmond opened as -3.5 with late support for Sydney pushing this to a pick with Sydney slight underdogs. Richmond by 29 points, taking them to 6-1 against the bookmakers line.
Saturday May 12th my bookie mate told me they were wary of Brisbane [$5.25, +25.5 @ 1.91] covering with the points over Collingwood [$1.17, -25.5 @ 1.91]. They needn’t have worried, as the Lions were easily taken care of by a Collingwood team in second gear for the most part. +30.5 earlier in the week came in to +26.5 by the bounce.
Saturday May 12th and at Etihad, flag firmers Essendon [$1.55, -10.5 @ 1.91] hosted the West Coast Eagles [$2.50, +10.5 @ 1.91]. Starting the week much shorter at -2.5, Essendon was helped by quick ball movement, and captain Jobe Watson found plenty of it. Another game that was assumed to be competitive was far from it with the Bombers finishing 61 point winners.
Sunday May 13th saw North Melbourne [$1.35, -18.5 @ 1.91] and Western Bulldogs [$3.20, +18.5 @ 1.91] matching up. This line moved to +/- 23.5 points late, having started the week at +/- 16.5 points. Brian Lake recapturing some great form, and the Kangaroos poor with disposal at times.
Sunday May 13th and the last game for Sunday with a game in the west as Fremantle [$1.14, -32.5 @ 1.91] hosted Port Adelaide [$6.00, +32.5 @ 1.91]. This line was fairly steady all week, and there wasn’t much action to move it around. Fremantle snuck in to cover.
Monday May 14th, Carlton [$1.24, -25.5 @ 1.91] and St. Kilda [$4.05, +25.5 @ 1.91] met on the first “Monday night football” of 2012. This line moved to +/-29.5 at the bounce. In short, Carlton couldn’t step up at Etihad, and St. Kilda had the usual suspects in Steven Milne, Brendan Goddard and Lenny Hayes all flying. Their counterparts had a few passengers and their consistency would have to now be in question. We drop -16 units taking Carlton.
Favourites went 5 – 4 against the bookmakers handicap line. (Now 29 – 34 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up four times.
For the professionalgambler team after round 7, we went 0-3 for -57 units, and taking our 2012 AFL only season record to 6-10, -52 units.
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