Monday 29th May 2017,
Dr Sport

Sports Investment: Adelaide Crows Sportsbetting Line Analysis from AFL Season 2011.

“It’s time. We have underperformed this year and I take responsibility for that,” – Neil Craig, announcing his resignation at a press conference.

The Adelaide Crows football team in 2011 was exactly as Neil Craig described. Lacking any real momentum during the season, finishing with only seven wins and the 3rd worst percentage in the league, memories of Adelaide in 2011 are best forgotten. Using sports betting market data, we continue our analysis of each teams 2011 season and paint a sports investment picture of Adelaide’s season.

The following charts show* (from L – R): a)The posted handicap line, b)the line price, c)the head to head price, d)the opponent, e)the final score, f)Adelaide’s performance in respect to the handicap assigned [a)], g)the cumulative total of [f)], h)Notes on venue, i)flat stake performance against [a)] when investing to “win $100″

(Note : blue highlight indicates return from the bye, pink highlight on “result vs line” indicates Adelaide failed to cover, pink highlight on team name indicates outright loss)
* for ease of access – line information comes courtesy of the excellent folks at footywire.

Crows vs the line 2011 AFL

|| Adelaide Crows' Weekly Sports Investment Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 1 – 11 ||

Crows vs The Line AFL 2011

|| Adelaide Crows' Weekly Sports Investment Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 12 – 22 ||

Adelaide didn’t disgrace themselves in straight up numbers against the line, in fact – for a team that finished well out of the finals race, you could well have expected a much worse performance than 10-12 ATS. Heavy losses suffered in a handful of games sent their cumulative performance well into negative.

Some points to note:

  • Finished 10 – 12 against the spread.
  • Finished 6 – 6 against the spread at home.
  • Lost once as a deep odds on favourite ($1.26)
  • Flat stakes betting left you -$320 in the red (investing $110 to win $100)

Unlike Melbourne, another poor performer, Adelaide didn’t deteriorate as badly in the second half of the season – possibly due to Neil Craig’s resignation and Mark Bickley stepping in as coach and bringing some re-invigoration.

Adelaide Crows vs The Line

|| Weekly breakdown of Sydney's 2011 AFL season vs the bookmakers line ||

This chart above shows Adelaide to be a team that capitulated when they lost, falling short of the bookmakers line by heavy margins on a handful of occasions. To the right hand side of the table, it is clear to see that the Crows didn’t romp away with many wins, and didn’t really put many resounding victories on the board that would have outperformed the bookmakers expectation.

Crows vs the line, cumulative total.

|| Cumulative points performance of Adelaide's 2011 AFL season vs the bookmaker's line ||

As discussed, Adelaide began 2011 poorly, and continued to drop points against the bookmaker’s line – only improving briefly at the tail end of the season. Approaching -300 cumulative points is one of the worst performances of 2011.

There wasn’t much to like in 2011. The new coach Brenton Sanderson is keen to add a harder, more competitive edge in 2012. Let’s hope so, then we can start winning with them, instead of fading them.

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