“So many games, so little time”
When you are analysing games, tracking prices, keeping charts, collating statistics, and assisting our marvellous, discerning members – things can get hectic for a sports investment team.
This week was one of those crazy weeks. Website problems added to the headaches. Was it the full moon? I don’t know, although it was interesting to note that Pinnacle also had a few issues with their website. (Although the cynical among you could say that this isn’t anything too out of the ordinary for them).
Will be good to settle into this week and catch up on things.
This post, as usual, reports this weeks early AFL prices and thoughts. We will be the first to admit that this week’s summary is not by any means all that early, or an exhaustive monitoring. Apart from two games we circled on the Saturday, we could almost have passed this weekend and not been too bothered by the fact.
I would argue that the air of invincibility and crushing scoring aura has faded with the pies. Not to say it cannot be recaptured – we hope it can as we would love to lay points with a red hot Collingwood – just that the ship needs to be righted. Teams now feel confident that they are a chance to take a scalp when coming up against them. We wouldn’t call you crazy for taking the +39.5 points with the Bulldogs.
This game is a question of whether Brown can break the shackles, and whether the Lions can improve after showing some reasonable signs with a talented team. Essendon are travelling, and this could be a let-down spot. See if the number gets more generous.
Laying 50+ points down at skilled is business as usual for the cats. 5 out of 6 times they covered similar spots at Skilled in 2011. – 55.5 points for Geelong 2011 would be an easier proposition than Geelong version 2012 at the moment.
Can Fremantle dominate the Suns to the tune of 40 points up there at Metricon Stadium? Other teams have done so comfortably in the past, but the Suns are improving.
St. Kilda will relish being underdogs on a big Saturday night match at the ‘G. Laying a deep odds-on Hawthorn sitting 2-3 after 5 rounds isn’t the act of a madman. This will be the most like a ‘blockbuster’ out of all the games this round.
An undefeated Sydney take on a 4-1 Adelaide up there. Will be a good contest and test for Adelaide with the Swans flying.
No line as yet on the Friday, and not surprisingly a big moneyline option with GWS who haven’t come close to winning yet, although have been competitive in patches. 4-1 ATS after 5 rounds for GWS shows as much.
This one is close on paper, with a trip to AAMI always a danger game. Want to take Richmond here, but with their only win over Melbourne, we can’t lay points over there at AAMI where Port have been competitive.
The Eagles are certainly ‘flying high’, so far undefeated in 2012. The only option here is to lay points with the Eagles. Laying more than four goals against what has been a spirited North Melbourne in 2012 will require another look at some tape to evaluate if there is some value in doing that.
Many of these lines are ‘second guessers’ where something you like initially, only has you talk yourself out of it soon after. Possibly by virtue of the fact we lack a real blockbuster game this week. We will play it small this weekend and action will most likely take a stats bent.