The Anzac day blockbuster is undoubtedly the biggest game outside of the Grand Final, and fills the spot in the season vacated by state of origin, which some of you out there may remember fondly. 2012’s Anzac day match was once again a super game, with the result a nailbiter, with the Pies just hanging on. For our sports investment fund we didn’t take a financial position in the outcome of this one – declining to take/lay less than a goal in a game that could easily be decided by a kick.
Anyway, let’s reflect on round 5 AFL 2012 and let the prices and movements tell the tale.
Wednesday April 25th was the big MCG Anzac day blockbuster. Teams of course were Collingwood [$1.80, -3.5 @ 1.91] v Essendon [$2.00, +3.5 @ 1.91]. The line here didn’t tempt us one way or the other with less than a kick handicapped – and a result that fell that way also.
Friday April 27th had Fremantle [$2.35, +7.5 @ 1.91] hosting Carlton [$1.62, -7.5 @ 1.91] with a line that received some Carlton support during the week. Moving from an early week line of -3.5 points, pushed Carlton in 4 points to -7.5 . Our position was Carlton -7.5 investing 22 to win 20 units.
Saturday April 28th saw an eager Bulldogs [$1.05, -62.5 @ 1.91] unit shake off a commendable Greater Western Sydney team [$10.00, +62.5] to notch up their second win of the season. A line of +/- 62.5 early in the week stayed very much unchanged heading into game time, and the +62.5 was enough to get GWS the +points win.
Saturday April 28th with North Melbourne [1.02, -84.5 @ 1.91] battling the visiting Gold Coast Suns [$15.00, +84.5]. The Kangaroos had a bit of a scare though, by going into the half time break down by a point, but rallied well to run away with the win. It was not enough to cover however down at Etihad stadium, with only a 34 point victory. Early line in this game of +/- 73.5 moved more than 10 points by gametime – with the move not saluting.
Saturday April 28th up at the Gabba in a horribly wet evening of torrential rain, had a line of +/- 23.5 point early week, with the rain causing lines to move as far as -18.5 for the Cats by gametime. Result was never an issue however, as easing favourites Geelong ran out 38 point winners in a game that looked like it was played at Wet and Wild themepark. Lions [$3.55, +19.5 @ 1.91] and Geelong [$1.30, -19.5 @ 1.91] but no position.
Saturday April 28th at a damp MCG, had a hardworking Melbourne [$7.75, +40.5 @ 1.91] face St.Kilda [$1.09, -40.5 @ 1.91] in battle that had the Demons right in it until the dying stages. They are certainly improving and easily covered the generous line, which started the week at -38.5 before some St. Kilda support forced a move. Wanted Melbourne plus points but couldn’t email clients in time in all fairness.
Sunday 29th April Hawthorn [$1.30, -19.5 @ 1.91] were the fancies down in Tasmania taking on Sydney [$3.55, +19.5 @ 1.91]. This line was fairly stable, only moving a half point with a trickle of Hawthorn money. Sydney stole the outright underdog win.
Sunday 29th April and Richmond’s [$3.25, +18.5] persistence almost won them an upset against the form team West Coast Eagles [$1.35, -18.5 @ 1.91]. Fancied slightly during the week, Richmond shortened from +20.5 to the +18.5 price quoted at gametime. We invested 15 units to win 15 units that Eagles would cover.
Final game of the round was the SA derby of Adelaide [$1.55, -10.5 @ 1.91] v Port Adelaide [$2.45, +10.5 @ 1.91]. The line showed +/-13.5 early in the week, obviously seeing Adelaide shorten to the +/- 10.5 at gametime. Adelaide ran out 19 point winners despite Port gaining lots of momentum with 6 goals 1 behind in the 3rd quarter.
Favourites went 3 – 6 against the bookmakers handicap line. (Now 20 – 25 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up once.
That’s the round 5 AFL 2012 wrap, with the professionalgambler team going 1-1, +5 units, and taking our 2012 AFL season record to 6-4, +46 units.
Round 6 awaits…
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