Monday 24th July 2017,
Dr Sport

Sports Investment: Melbourne Demons Sportsbetting Line Analysis from AFL Season 2011.

“I figured I got here doing it my way, so I’m just going to keep doing it my way.” – Melbourne Senior Coach Mark Neeld – Interview.

The death of Melbourne Football Club champion and President Jim Stynes, followed soon after by a racism scandal (albeit unfounded), is far from the turnaround start to 2012 that the “Dees” would have wanted.

Long suffering Melbourne fans are hoping for a seachange, and soon – having been waiting since 1964 for a Premiership, and having not made a finals appearance since 2006. It looks as though 2012 will once again not be that turnaround year.

More importantly than a premiership at this stage, would be a few signs that things are improving, and that the ongoing off-field restructuring is going to translate to some on-field success and finals appearances.

In any event, let’s see how far Melbourne were behind the pack in a sports investment sense in 2011.

The following charts show* (from L – R): a)The posted handicap line, b)the line price, c)the head to head price, d)the opponent, e)the final score, f)Melbourne’s performance in respect to the handicap assigned [a)], g)the cumulative total of [f)], h)Notes on venue, i)flat stake performance against [a)] when investing to “win $100″

(Note : blue highlight indicates return from the bye, pink highlight on “result vs line” indicates Melbourne failed to cover, pink highlight on team name indicates outright loss)
* for ease of access – line information comes courtesy of the excellent folks at footywire.

Melbourne vs The Line

|| Melbourne Demons' Weekly Sports Investment Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 1 – 11 ||

A serviceable start to the year. However performance quickly deteriorated in the second half of the season.

Melbourne vs The Line

|| Melbourne Demons' Weekly Sports Investment Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 12 – 24 ||

Coming home, Melbourne struck 4 finalists 4 weeks in a row, and suffered heavy losses. Poor performing teams were also able to cover against Melbourne easily.

In summary Melbourne:

  • Finished 6 – 16 against the spread.
  • Flat stakes betting left you -$1660 at seasons end (investing $110 to win $100)
  • Didn’t cover for 10 games straight finishing out the season.
  • Won as a $4.30 underdog, lost as a $1.25 favourite.
  • Dramatically underperformed in a sports wagering sense in the second half of the season, similar to Richmond in 2011.
Weekly analysis of 2011 AFL season and Melbourne Demons' performance.

|| Weekly breakdown of Melbourne's 2011 AFL season vs the bookmaker's line ||

As expected, the left side of the above graph is most populated, indicating Melbourne’s failure to cover lines, sometimes by large margins.

Melbourne's cumulative performance against the bookmaker's line throughout the 2011 AFL season

|| Cumulative points performance of Melbourne's 2011 AFL season vs the bookmaker's line ||

A quick glance at this graph clearly demonstrates the drop off suffered by the Demons “against the line” in the latter part of the season as they came up against strong finals condenders. Graph is quite similar to Richmond, who also performed poorly in 2011 and showed a similar downtrend.

Melbourne was destroyed in round 19 by Geelong with a final score of 233 – 47, resulting in coash Dean Bailey being sacked. Following this, Melbourne’s slide worsened in combination with the tough games against the finalists as mentioned.

In summary, the Demons’ 2011 performance gives a bettor no faith in chancing them in any significant way in 2012. This team generally fails to cover, and fails in stretches that at best make them a profit opportunity as a ‘fade’ team, or for many, puts them in the ‘avoid’ category.

Next for analysis, Adelaide Crows.

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