“Sports betting can be attacked intelligently” – King Yao, Weighing the Odds in Sports Betting.
Let’s run through the available lines for AFL Round 5 for those who fancy investing in some footy this weekend. See if there are any indications of value.
The bookies have this one listed as a close one. You wouldn’t have thought so earlier in the season… Laying or getting less than a kick in a game that could easily be decided by a goal doesn’t inspire a position immediately.
Carlton travel to WA on the back of a shock loss to Essendon in round 4. We like Carlton minus points, only querey – as usual with a Perth trip – is the trip itself and what is sure to be a hostile Dockers crowd. Would like to ideally be laying under 7.5 to make this a solid play against Fremantle minus Sandilands.
Another GWS game, another big line. This one is at Manuka oval in Canberra. The dogs aren’t showing great form, but would have to think they’d be showing some motivated play when in front against the GWS. If GWS show some fight, they’ll cover with 63.5 points against this dogs outfit that you could argue is still missing Barry Hall. Would doubt that we’d be playing this game.
We are not as bullish as others on North Melbourne. Still not convinced, and on paper the -80.5 seems steep. Everything would have to go right for North Melbourne. A big out for the Suns is Ablett, their chief playmaker.
At the MCG, we will be watching to see if we can take 40pts+ about the Dees. Our numbers say that would be a reasonable spot to be in. We will see if the books kindly roll it out in that direction a little for us.
Simon Black’s 300th with some rain forecast, makes the +22.5 for the Lions an attractive first glance.
Expecting the Hawks to shorten up in the lead up to this game – like the Hawks tend to do. Laying more than 3 goals is not the greatest position given Hawthorn’s past margins down in Tasmania.
West Coast are a much better team than Richmond, in fact – this Eagles side could easily produce a flag in the next 3-5 years many are saying (and we conclude). Richmond would be much less likely to. For this weekend though (one week at a time and all that), 19.5 points at the dome seems minor when viewed in this light.
The local derby. Great viewing normally. $2.66 Port Adelaide head to head will get us looking into it, but there may be better sports investment options on Saturday or Sunday and would stop us reaching for this.
Hope you can find a winner gang.