Round four of AFL action had Essendon causing a big upset that few sports investment pundits and football commentators predicted. This was a warning for favourites with very few covering, and 3 outright underdogs winning on the moneyline. Some matches were affected by wet weather, causing contests to be relatively lower scoring and limiting blowouts.
Line movements and analysis were as follows.
Friday April 20th at Etihad stadium, St.Kilda [$1.44, -18.5 @ 1.91] faced off against Fremantle [$2.85, +18.5 @ 1.91] in a match-up enhanced with the backstory of new Fremantle coach Ross Lyon returning to coach against his old team. Saw this line open at +/- 17.5, and fluctuate to 18.5 with a little late trickle for Fremantle at our preferred bookmaker.
Saturday April 21st saw Essendon [$7.00, +40.5 @ 1.91] upsetting Carlton [$1.10, -40.5 @ 1.91] at the MCG. This line closed at 43.5 in some spots, and we took Essendon +43.5 @ $2.00, investing 15 to win 15 units just on the bounce. With this line starting at +/- 35.5 earlier in the week, 8 point line move didn’t get the win here.
Saturday April 21st had our second position for the weekend, with us hitting the line on Collingwood [$1.22, -28.5 @ 1.91] against Port Adelaide [$4.30, +28.5 @ 1.91]. The line here opened at +/ -41.5 early in the week, but key omissions of Shaw and Thomas resulted in Collingwood -27.5 at the bounce. We invested 22 to win 20 units, with Port Adelaide getting the backdoor cover to deny us a win.
Saturday April 21st continued with Adelaide [$1.01, -90.5 @ 1.91] tackling GWS [$26.00, +90.5 @ 1.91] at AAMI stadium. GWS got the cover – a good performance considering the trip over to Adelaide. Saw a line of +/- 87.5 earlier in the week for this.
Saturday April 21st the night game, and what was billed as the matchup of the round. Hawthorn [$2.20, +6.5 @ 1.91] went west to face the Eagles [$1.68, -6.5 @ 1.91]. An available +/- 3.5 line earlier in the week pushed 6 points to West Coast -9.5 @ 2.04 and Hawthorn +9.5 @ 1.87 by the bounce. Depending on when you bet this game, early in the week the Eagles covered the -3.5 points, an investment later in the week saw Hawthorn salute.
Saturday April 21st and the last game on Saturday was a firming Brisbane [$1.35, -20.5 @ 1.91] against Gold Coast Suns [$3.20. +20.5 @ 1.91] up at the GABBA. A line of -15.5 early in the week eased to -21.5 @ 2.040 at our preferred book – and the line move was correct, with the Lions running out easy 65 point winners in the end.
Sunday April 22nd and we invested again, taking Geelong [$1.18, -32.5 @ 1.91] over Richmond [$5.00, +32.5 @ 1.91] at Skilled stadium. We layed the -32.5 points, investing 22 to win 20 and fell short with the cats not continuing with the momentum to the second half for us. Cats now 1-3 against the spread so far in 2012. Richmond were well supported starting +35.5 earlier in the week.
Sunday April 22nd afternoon game of Sydney [$1.97, +1.5 @ 1.91] and North Melbourne [$1.83, -1.5 @ 1.91]. Liked the Swans here, they were the big easing team of the round, starting $1.55 and -10.5 @ 1.91 and our team here at PG went close to taking the even money of $2.080 head to head at the bounce. Firming on North Melbourne was not paid out here.
Sunday April 22nd and the last game of the round at the MCG had Melbourne [$3.00, +19.5 @ 1.91] trying to cover for the first time in 2012, facing the Western Bulldogs [$1.40, -19.5 @ 1.91]. General disinterest in this game from a punting perspective saw this line barely budge all week.
Favourites went 2 – 7 against the bookmakers handicap line. (Now 17 – 19 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up three times.
That’s the round 4 AFL 2012 wrap, with the professionalgambler team going 1-2, -29 units, and taking our 2012 AFL season record to 5-3, +41 units.
On to round 5.
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