“For every disciplined effort, there is multiple reward” – Jim Rohn.
Advertisements for bookmakers (especially here in Australia) would have you believe that they are giving money away. There’s bets refunded if your horse finishes second in this or that race, bets reversed if you lose on a protest, AFL bets refunded if your selected team loses by less than a goal, offers of $200 or more sign up bonuses and on and on it goes. It seems like every week there’s a new way to get you on board with an interesting offer of some kind.
How’s this – recently, a friend of mine told me about a promotion an online book is running that pays $1.95 on your toast being burnt in the morning with a full refund if you spill your coffee as well…!
I’m being ridiculous of course – for the sake of illustrating a point.
With all of these great offers out there… surely things are better for the punter than ever before? In an ideal world – everyone with an online betting account would have an ever growing balance – with stories of turning your $200 sign up bonus into a holiday to Hawaii plentiful.
No, because the bookies are hiding a secret… and I’m about to share it with you.
No, it’s not a secret sports investment rule like “bet underdogs”.
It’s not some inside knowledge they have into events.
…And it’s certainly not the AFL line offerings that allow you to improve your line by taking a shorter price (which is basically suicidal in a long term ROI sense).
But before I share this secret with you – we still haven’t drilled down into these promotions – why are online bookmakers cutting us such a “great deal”?
Simple. They want your account – and they are willing to risk a loss as a means of getting it.
And this is where the secret reveals itself… the fact that all punters accounts are rated, and the bookmakers know that the vast, and overwhelming majority of retail clients gained through promotions like this are going to be easy to beat, and the risk to the bookmaker from this promotion in reality has a very beneficial ROI.
Essentially a retail punter has a very high likelihood of quickly losing the initial deposit and the bonus. Some of these clients will go on to become long term (losing) customers- providing a valuable flow of low-risk betting dollars for what could be years on end.
Picture this. (A true story by the way).
A friends father, a reasonably wealthy horse owner, was looking to back his runner. He was offered a pretty substantial sign-up bonus – $400 from memory – with a minimal deposit to sign up to a well known online bookmaker. Fantastic. He backed his horse for $400 getting 4’s and it saluted. A handy $1600.
Next weekend he saw another horse he liked at 2.00. He jumped on for $1600 and when it duly won he had $3200.
The following day, he was eager to go again. $3200 on a hotpot at Mildura races. I asked him if he’d bet $3200 before, he said no – the most he’d ever bet was the initial $500… but in this case he told me he was thinking “It wasn’t my money anyway”.
His runner finished 3rd, and he was back at square one. He has since deposited again to this account to bet AFL, and a new long term customer is born.
This would be a familiar scenario played out on the back of bonus bet promotions.
Not only are favourable new customers obtained through these promotions – each client sign up also provides an email address – giving the betting operation a chance to promote further offers/bonuses. Offers that are undoubtably unique and interesting – but a losing long term proposition to a punter lacking a profitable and proven strategy
Don’t get me wrong – I like bookmakers and am certainly not here to bash them- they are indispensable to a profitable sports investment process. Without them acting as your broker, you can’t invest. Besides, if I was to play devil’s advocate – they are just another business trying to get an ROI on their advertising dollar, and the advertising is perfectly legal, and if you are interested in opening an account, it’s not a terrible way to get started.
We just need to realise that the bookies have done their homework, and you need to do yours too.
Some free money up front is of no benefit when the other side of the coin is not insignificant long term losses.
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