Can you believe it? – only 3 rounds into the 2012 AFL season and we already have more drama with the start of this season than we have had in years (with the exception of the Wayne Carey bombshell of season 2002). Form reversals, rumours, some notable reports, the season so far has shown us glimpses of everything.
As sports investment advisors, it’s been a case of steady as she goes. The early results against handicap lines haven’t been too far out of the ordinary – the biggest underperformer has been Collingwood, grand finalists from 2011 that have as yet failed to cover – sitting 0-3 ATS. Accompanying them at 0-3 ATS are Essendon and Melbourne.
From a sportsbetting perspective, AFL markets have been unsettled by the introduction of GWS throwing up some of the biggest lines ever seen (with a 100+ point range for the West Coast matchup), with the accompanying moneyline betting being suspended. Bookies have realised they severely underestimated the weakness of Gold Coast in 2011 and seem unwilling to make the same mistake this year when fielding GWS betting. Could be the topic of a blog post in the near future, but there are several reasons why one wouldn’t want to take either side of a 100+ line wager such as that.
Anyway, onto the Round 3 analysis.
Friday April 13th and Carlton [$1.80, -3.5 @ 1.91] put a Friday the 13th hoodoo on Collingwood [$2.05, +3.5 @ 1.91] running out impressive 60 point winners at the MCG. Carlton are playing some sensational football, kicking accurately with multiple avenues to goal, forcing opposing teams to play catch-up panic football. Collingwood meanwhile have some issues that although blown up, are not ideal to have swirling. When your form drops off so suddenly, it’s only right that questions get asked.
Be that as it is, some late Collingwood money brought this line from Blues as -3.5 point favourites, to Collingwood 1.935 vs Carlton 1.971 at the bounce. This late week move was not to the right side.
Saturday April 14th had Port Adelaide [$2.67, +13.5 @ 1.91] tackling the Sydney Swans [$1.47, -13.5 @ 1.91] at AAMI stadium. Sydney covered by less than 10 points for the second week in a row, and would be happy to get the win on the road.
Saturday April 14th a strong second half from an initially workmanlike Richmond Tigers [$1.17, -30.5 @ 1.91] saw them defeat Melbourne [$5.00, +30.5 @ 1.91] . A very generous initial line of Richmond: $1.308, -24.5 @ 1.909 was bet all the way to – 31.5 at the bounce as money continued to roll in on the Tigers. This huge money train saluted as Richmond posted a 59 point victory.
Saturday April 14th Fremantle Dockers [$1.08, -44.5 @ 1.91] defeated Brisbane [$8.00, +44.5 @ 1.91] over at Paterson’s Stadium. Wasn’t much movement on this line, and most likely not much interest with punters unsure of which way to mark Jonathan Brown’s return and Simon Black’s absence against a 44.5 point line. We weren’t keen either here with those unknowns.
Saturday April 14th Essendon [$1.06, -53.5 @ 1.91] are victims of their own perception that they cannot travel. This has to be the reason we saw them battling and clawing their way to a narrow victory over the Gold Coast [$9.50, +53.5 @ 1.91]. At 3/4 time surely Essendon players were thinking “this wasn’t supposed to be so hard!”. This line came down from -58.5 earlier in the week possibly with some Gold Coast mail that they were prepared to fight this one out (given it was what we ourselves had heard). We saw -52.5 by the time we bounced with the move once again being to the right side.
Saturday April 14th Western Bulldogs [$2.60, +12.5 @ 1.91] were uninspiring against an improving St. Kilda [$1.50, -12.5 @ 1.91] outfit. Despite many people tipping the Bulldogs, not many backed them according to my bookmaker buddy. The line received some Saints support, but only moved a single point from -11.5 earlier in the week.
Sunday April 15th. The first match of the day had the GWS Giants [$26.00, +97.5 @ 1.91] playing the West Coast Eagles [$1.01, -97.5 @ 1.91] at Blacktown International – which for some reason reminded me of the Adelaide Oval ? This line was released early in the week at +104.5 (higher at some spots) and you had to be quick to get a good number on GWS – this line was all one way traffic – with the traffic being on the right side.
Sunday April 15th. Hawthorn [$1.20, -29.5 @ 1.91] and Adelaide [$4.75, +29.5 @ 1.91] at the ‘G was our only position of the weekend, taking the Hawks -29.5 @ 1.952 investing 21 to win 20 units with Pinnacle. This number had been wound out from -28.5 and reached -30.5 by gametime. Again, the late move was the right move with the Hawks covering easily.
Sunday April 15th. The biggest upset of the year so far, with Geelong [$1.21, -27.5 @ 1.91] going down to North Melbourne [$4.35, +27.5 @ 1.91] in the twilight game at Etihad stadium. Although a classic “let down” spot for the Cats, few would have contemplated an outright loss. The line movement from -30.5 @ 1.962, to -24.5 @ 1.877 reflected the inclination of punters to strongly fade a tired Geelong in this situation. This was arguably the most impressive line move of the week (a 6 point line move in favour of the ‘dog) – and once again – it got the $.
We’re getting closer to that part of the season where you really have to earn your money. Follow the line moves, make notes frequently and look for solid positions to invest in.
Favourites went 5 – 4 against the bookmakers handicap line. (Now 15 – 12 for the season).
Moneyline underdogs won straight up once.
That’s the round 3 AFL 2012 wrap, with the professionalgambler team going 1-0, +20 units, and taking our 2012 AFL season record to 4-1, +70 units.
Let’s hope for a sensational round 4.
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