“You can observe a lot just by watching” – Yogi Berra.
Two rounds into the AFL season and punters and pundits alike are forming some early and fairly heavy conclusions.
Collingwood is off the rails and Nathan Buckley is not cutting it. Carlton has gone from “needing a good forward target” (September 2011) to having “their unpredictability going forward as their strength” (April 2012) and not needing one. Melbourne is a basket case – distracted again by a damaging racism rumour that still appears to be lingering. GWS has failed to really fire a shot and some bookies are refusing to take moneyline action on games.
Markets reflect perception and the AFL markets are no different – with this week having quite a few lines that are being really hit by some heavy punting based on these early opinions. As usually happens about this time of the year, confidence starts to enter the market around certain teams, and conversely – lack of confidence in others.
Enough philosophy, let’s take a look at some mid-week prices for Round 3.
This game is already completed, (as I write this on Saturday April 14th), and we had a closing line of Collingwood 1.935 vs Carlton 1.971 on it. It fluctuated to Carlton -3.5 pts during the week, with late Collingwood money leaving us with 1.935. If anything we contemplated the ‘Pies but no play with the best option being to stay away.
Tigers vs Demons at the MCG and Melbourne (and their supporters) are looking for at least a few good quarters of football. This is a sportsbetting line that did move. Starting at the 24.5 that you see above, this one moved all the way to 31.5 at the bounce with serious Tigers support.
Sydney only laying -13.5 at AAMI catches the eye on paper, but our thinking was this line was released at about the right number, and punters at large have agreed. This game is just about to start and has only moved slightly throughout the week. Sydney will be looking for a 3-0 start, and Port have made definite improvements from 2011 thus far. Look for a tense struggle.
This trip out west is a tough one for the Lions, awarded +44.5 accordingly. Worth a look.
This line will likely finish at 52.5, with some support for the Suns at home with the big margin. Dustin Fletcher’s 350th game should see the Bombers up and about so a tough line to take a stand on.
This betting line had a little bit of support moving it around, but nothing too drastic. Another one of those games we didn’t see an angle or value in.
Massive line represents the enourmous mis-match between these two teams. At the time of writing this line has moved 7 points to 97.5. If this game had been played over in Perth, you could probably write your own line on GWS in the 120+ range. Watching where this line ends up.
Hawks coming off the back of a disappointing loss to Geelong, with Adelaide not to be underestimated according to Hawks coach Alistair Clarkson. Still laying -28.5 points with the Hawks at the time of writing.
Interesting one here. From laying -30.5 points early in the week we have seen some North Melbourne support push this line to -27.5 now. If you would like to back the best team in the league in an attractive situation, this is the chance.
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