West Coast on top, and Collingwood and Geelong outside the 8. A very interesting ladder after 2 rounds of football. The betting patterns have been similarly interesting so far in 2012 for sports investment followers.
Fading the two weakest teams in the competition is most likely going to be similarly effective in 2012 as it was fading the one weak team (Gold Coast Suns) in 2011. We are already seeing a line of 100+ (104.5 at time of writing) for the GWS v WC clash and there is no doubt there will be some horrible losses ahead for both these teams in 2012.
Line moves leading up to games have been confirmed with wins “against the spread” regularly so far in 2012, and is something all readers should keep an eye on.
We said this was a review – so let’s review the Round 2 lines and see what else of note occurred this week in the AFL sports betting market.
Thursday April 5th saw Carlton [$1.30, -20.5 @ 1.91] travel up to take on Brisbane [$3.50, +20.5 @ 1.91]. We liked this matchup so monitored it quite closely. A 19.5 point start to the Lions was the first line we saw (this was at the evil empire Centrebet lol), but some Carlton interest through the week meant you were laying -20.5 points as game time approached. Just before the bounce a sprinkle of money came for the Blues to trim them up, but not enough to move them up to -21.5. For ourselves here we layed the -20.5 and enjoyed Eddie Betts’ marks, along with watching Carlton kick away to a massive win.
Saturday April 7th the early game for Easter Saturday had Essendon [$1.24, -25.5 @ 1.91] hosting Port Adelaide Power [$4.35, +25.5 @ 1.91] here at Etihad Stadium. Essendon came up short and continued to firm leading up to the bounce. We invested here very late taking a small position on the $4.60 head to head just prior to the game beginning. Essendon injuries helped us to get within 2 points at 3/4 time and Port continued to threaten until the dying stages giving the $4.60 a great show.
Saturday April 7th also had Sydney [$1.67, -6.5 @ 1.91] vs Fremantle [$2.30, +6.5 @ 1.91] up in Sydney. Neither of these are our favourite teams to get involved with, and we were not particularly excited about the prices on offer, so no activity was even contemplated on this one for the gang here at P.G. Fremantle seem (and claim) to be up and about under Ross Lyon. Some respect should be shown, so watch this space.
Saturday April 7th West Coast [$1.05, -53.5 @ 1.91] destroyed Melbourne [$12.00, +53.5 @ 1.91] by 108 points. This line started the week at -47.5 and travelled 6 points at most places – and by the time of the first bounce -54.5 @ 1.952 was available in some spots (pinnacle for example). We’re liking, well actually – loving this Eagles outfit. The play here was clearly West Coast minus points, but we weren’t keen to lay 50 points plus this early in the season.
Saturday April 7th Adelaide [$1.25, -28.5 @ 1.91] hosted the Western Bulldogs [$4.25, 28.5 @ 1.91] at AAMI and managed to win a second match for new coach Brenton Sanderson. There was a little bit of support for the Western Bulldogs before the game with the line dropping from 29.5 earlier in the week. Again, the late move was in the right direction with the ‘Dogs covering at +28.5.
Saturday April 7th evening had a challenging match for Richmond [$6.35, +34.5 @ 1.91] – taking on Collingwood [$1.14, -34.5 @ 1.91] at the MCG. The ‘Pies were able to switch it on when needed and take the win by 21 points, but not enough to get the cover. Collingwood are in fact yet to cover the line in 2012.
Sunday April 8th Blundstone Arena in Tasmania played host to the North Melbourne [$1.02, -76.5 @ 1.91] vs Greater Western Sydney [$19.00, +76.5 @ 1.91] clash. With the line at 78.5 earlier in the week, there had been obviously been some minimal support for the GWS Giants. This time the move was a false one with the Kangaroos covering by 52 points. Enough has been said about the difficulties of GWS, no need to repeat them here.
Sunday April 8th St.Kilda [$1.06, -52.5 @ 1.91] had the Gold Coast [$11.00, +52.5 @ 1.91] at Etihad stadium. Another game we wanted to stay away from. On numbers alone, St.Kilda would be favoured to get the cover, and they did. With the Suns unable to cover the line again by a decent margin, only Melbourne can match them in underperformance against the line.
Monday April 9th the big clash on Easter Monday, with the Cats [$2.50, +12.5 @ 1.91] holding on in the dying stages of a cracking match to take the four points away from Hawthorn [$1.55, -12.5 @ 1.91]. Having eased from +11.5 handicap and $2.46 to win during the week, we waited until an hour before gametime and took a moneyline position on Geelong @ $2.75 for 17 units and were rewarded with the straight-up win. The Hawks were not disgraced and have a “should win” against Adelaide at the ‘G this week to get back on track before a visit to tackle the Eagles over in Perth.
Favourites went 5 – 4 against the bookmakers handicap line. (Now 10 – 8 for the season).
Moneyline underdog won straight-up once.
That’s all for AFL round 2 2012, with the professionalgambler team going 2-1, +35 units, and takes the 2012 AFL season records to 3-1, +50 units.
Here’s hoping round 3 treat us all kindly.
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