Monday 29th May 2017,
Dr Sport

Sports Investment: West Coast Eagles Sportsbetting Line Analysis from AFL Season 2011.

“It was a great achievement to climb from 16th to fourth, but our club is not about being fourth. We know we need to work extremely hard to make the improvement from a preliminary final to winning a premiership, but we are up for that challenge.” – John Worsfold, receiving his Coach of the Year Award 2011.

We really liked -and still like – the Eagles. They lined our pockets here at PG nicely in 2011 with an ambitious, hard working brand of football, a style of play that was excellent to side with when it was was switched on.

As the Eagles take up the challenge of seriously competing for a premiership in the coming years – we ask the question about their 2011 sports betting line performance. Were they as dependable and rewarding for sports investors as some of the other teams we have so far dissected? Let’s investigate.

Information is the same as previous 2011 line analysis posts * (from L – R): a)The posted handicap line, b)the line price, c)the head to head price, d)the opponent, e)the final score, f)West Coast’s performance in respect to the handicap assigned [a)], g)the cumulative total of [f)], h)Notes on venue, i)flat stake performance against [a)] when investing to “win $100″

(Note : blue highlight indicates return from the bye, pink highlight on “result vs line” indicates West Coast failed to cover, pink highlight on team name indicates outright loss)

* for ease of access – line information comes courtesy of the excellent folks at footywire.

West Coast vs The Line sports betting

|| West Coast Eagles' Weekly Sports Investment Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 1 – 13 ||

Strong early rounds performance.

West Coast vs The Line 2011 AFL second half of season

|| West Coast Eagles' Weekly Sports Investment Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 14 – Finals ||

  • Cumulative total peaked at +320.5 points, and did so very close to the season’s end indicating a strong and persistent outperformance against the line over the season. (see cumulative chart below)
  • Never lost when starting favourite in head to head odds.
  • Lost only one game playing in WA.
  • Won as a $4.20, $2.85, $2.45 underdog.
  • Finished 7 – 6 against the spread when playing in WA (including two games vs Fremantle)
  • Flat stakes betting yielded +$190, when assuming an investment of $110 to win $100.
  • The 2011 West Coast Eagles was a team that covered handily when they did cover (average of 34.93 points), and only just fell short when they failed to cover (average 17.19 points).

This is clearly evident in the following chart:

West Coast weekly vs the point spread

|| Weekly breakdown of West Coast's 2011 AFL season vs the bookmaker's line ||

 

West Coast vs the bookmakers line cumulative season 2011 AFL

|| Cumulative points performance of West Coast's 2011 AFL season vs the bookmakers line. ||

 

The Eagles of 2011 strongly outperformed against the posted line in a cumulative sense, but oddly for a team that finished 301 points ahead of the bookmakers, only went 14-11 against the spread. Given that they failed to cover by less than a goal on two occasions and failed to cover by less than 15 points on a total of six occasions, West Coast could quite easily have ended at a more deserving record of say 15-10 or 16-9.

We turn our attention next to Melbourne.

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