Tuesday 25th July 2017,
Dr Sport

Sports Investment: Richmond Tigers Sportsbetting Line Analysis from AFL Season 2011

“The tiger is stirring” – Richmond 2011 campaign slogan.

Profiting from sports investment is a tough enough proposition as it is, without adding to your difficulties by taking positions on a team which was among the most inconsistent in the league in 2011.

Anyone with a copy of the 2011 season can see the Tigers forcing a draw with 2010 grand finalists St. Kilda one week, only to lose to the terrible Port Adelaide Power only 8 weeks later. Frustrating for supporters, and the best you can do as a sports investor is to pick your occasional spots with teams like this, or otherwise avoid.

However, enthusiasm has been revived (once again) for the upcoming season – with crucial elements having fallen into place for their 2012 campaign with the re-signings of productive midfielder Brett Deledio along with coach Damien Hardwick. Add to this the finishing 15th in 2010 and 12th in 2011, and an exciting NAB preseason, Richmond would appear to be a team on the up. Maybe we can start looking at Richmond to finally start rewarding loyal supporters whilst providing us with a profit source?

Before we get carried away with potential, let’s delve into season 2011’s numbers and see what – except inconsistency – we can draw from their season.

The following charts we have prepared show* (from L – R): a)The posted handicap, b)the line price, c)the head to head price, d)the opponent, e)the final score, f)Richmond’s performance in respect to the handicap assigned [a)], g)the cumulative total of [f)], h)Notes on venue, i)flat stake performance against [a)] when investing to “win $100″

(Note : blue highlight indicates return from the bye, pink highlight on “result vs line” indicates Richmond failed to cover, pink highlight on team name indicates outright loss)

* for ease of access – line information comes courtesy of the excellent folks at footywire.

Richmond vs The Line

|| Richmond Tigers' Weekly Sports Investment Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 1 – 12 ||

Richmond vs The Line

|| Richmond Tigers' Weekly Sports Investment Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 13 – 24 ||

In summary Richmond:

  • Finished 10 – 12 against the spread
  • Flat stakes punters were – $320 in the red by the end of the season.
  • seemed to not only cover in streaks (twice Richmond covered 3 games straight), but also fail to cover in a 6 game streak throughout the second half of the season.
  • had performed very close to the bookmakers mark in a cumulative sense during the first half of the season, before fading drastically near the seasons end.
Richmond vs the line weekly

|| Weekly breakdown of Richmond's 2011 AFL season vs the bookmakers line ||

Left side of the chart above is more populated – showing that underperformance was not only frequent, but often by good double digits. Outperformance represented on the right is also fairly large at times.

Richmond vs the boomakers line cumulative 2011 AFL

|| Cumulative points performance vs the bookmakers line, 2011 AFL season

Richmond’s 103 point loss to Carlton in round 15 set them on the slide that lead to a cumulative bottom-out at -180.5 pts after round 20’s loss to West Coast Eagles in WA. This then leads to an equally sharp rebound over the final four weeks as per Richmond’s unpredictability!

After all of this 2012 will still be an unknown for Richmond supporters. I hope for their sakes that the Tigers are able to settle into being competitive for an entire season.

Next up for sports investment analysis, the West Coast Eagles.

Follow along on twitter https://twitter.com/progamblercomau

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