“Half of the troubles of this life can be traced to saying yes too quickly, and not saying no soon enough.” – Josh Billings.
And so it should be, with your AFL sports investments as we launch into season 2012.
Round 1 of any sport can be a tough nut to crack, and caution has to be advised. You could liken a new professional sports season to a stock that has been in a trading halt for almost 6 months. You are best off not jumping on board with the market’s opening bell, unless you have some key information that entices you to say “yes”.
Let’s take a look at a few early numbers, captured last week on Friday 23rd March.
This line opening at 88.5 shows the bookies a bit reluctant to set a margin on the low side after seeing last year’s debut team Gold Coast finish 9 – 13 at the line last year. We had our preconceptions about the ANZ stadium’s heavy surface confirmed watching this game. An early opinion of ours was that +88.5 points on that surface would be quite generous. Something to consider in your wagering.
Carlton, as we know, was a strong performer in 2011. This line crushed in to 12.5 before the bounce as hype and anticipation built in Richmond’s favour. The move was a false one.
When screenshot was captured, a spread wasn’t available for this game. It was released at +7.5 Collingwood and there was a little bit of money for the ‘Pies, most of it likely supporter based. Hawks ran away with this one with some great contested football.
Very little movement of this line, and not much interest from punters with this game due to start within 2 hours. (edit, little nibble at Brisbane, line now -15.5 @ 2.0 Melbourne and +15.5 @ 1.909 Brisbane).
Adelaide continues to firm here, with a widely available line of -26.5 @ 1.847 Adelaide Crows, and +26.5 @ 2.07 Gold Coast Suns. (Side note: Kurt Tippett whacked by The Ox on 1116 SEN during the week as the AFL’s most over-rated player ! ).
Line basically unchanged. Excited to see the premiers out there again, and we are expecting to take plenty of game notes.
A couple of teams we avoided for stretches in 2011, facing off in round 1. We now have a line of +2.5 @ 1.943 for North Melbourne and -2.5 @ 1.962 Essendon. Will watch the replay of this early Sunday morning.
At time of writing (Saturday 31st March, 11:30 am) this line has moved up to +8.5 @ 1.926 Western Bulldogs and -8.5 @ 1.98 West Coast Eagles.
Initial thoughts here: if bookies were offering +18.5 at home about Port Adelaide there would definitely be some support at this number, and this has come to pass with a line of +16.5 @ 1.926 Port Adelaide, and -16.5 @ 1.980 St. Kilda at time of writing. Expect to see this line drop even further closer to game time, a full point at least.
Enjoy round 1, and bet smart and conservatively.
Follow along on twitter https://twitter.com/progamblercomau