Monday 24th July 2017,
Dr Sport

Sports Investment: Carlton Blues Sportsbetting Line Analysis from AFL Season 2011.

“We’re the team that never lets you down, we’re the only team old Carlton knows” – Blues theme song.

Hitting Carlton’s 2011 season from a sports investment perspective was always going to be pretty insightful.

A team that is on the up and playing some exciting football, Carlton finished in 5th position in season 2011 (improving from 8th in 2010), claiming the scalp of Collingwood, and falling short against Geelong by 2 points were highlights along the year’s journey.

Surely this is a team that rewarded loyal followers? Let’s take a look.

The following charts we have prepared show* (from L – R): a)The posted handicap, b)the line price, c)the head to head price, d)the opponent, e)the final score, f)Carlton’s performance in respect to the handicap assigned [a)], g)the cumulative total of [f)], h)Notes on venue, i)flat stake performance against [a)] when investing to “win $100″

(Note : blue highlight indicates return from the bye, pink highlight on “result vs line” indicates Carlton failed to cover, pink highlight on team name indicates outright loss)

* for ease of access – line information comes courtesy of the excellent folks at footywire.

Carlton vs the line

|| Carlton Blues' Weekly Sports Investment Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, rounds 1 – 12 ||

Great opening 12 rounds.

Carlton Blues vs the bookmaker's line AFL 2011

|| Carlton Blues' Weekly Sports Investment Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 13 – Finals ||

Looks like the Blues were able to continue into positive territory and finish off the season reasonably well. It could be argued that the bookmakers caught up to them to an extent, but when the dust settled, Carlton’s year was great for sports investors:

  • Ended the year 15 – 8 against the spread.
  • Rewarded flats stakes (assuming investing $110 to win $100 at 1.92) sports investors with a $620 profit at years end.
  • Had a cumulative points total of 270.5 at season’s end, finishing with this as a peak – as is clear in the strongly trending cumulative graph (2nd below).
Carlton AFL weekly 2011 vs the bookmakers line

|| Weekly Breakdown of Carlton's 2011 AFL season vs the bookmaker's line ||

More data points located on right hand side here. Good outperformance.


Carlton vs the bookmakers line, cumulative chart.

|| Cumulative points performance of Carlton's 2011 AFL season vs the bookmakers line ||

Another fantastic chart, strongly trending. Seems to indicate a team making progress, stalling briefly, before progressing again. Look for a very solid 2012.

Next up for analysis, Richmond.

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