Tuesday 30th May 2017,
Dr Sport

Sports Investment: Hawthorn Hawks Sportsbetting Line Analysis From AFL Season 2011.

“The Hawthorn star is a phenomenon of the modern game, a 196cm, 102kg dynamo with an ability to play football like no one before him.” – Mike Sheahan on Buddy Franklin.

The team that supports super-forward Lance Franklin isn’t too bad either, and this Hawthorn package was kind to sports investors during the 2011 season as we shall see below.

This week 11 of the 17 voting AFL skippers nominated Hawthorn as the club most likely to contest the grand final. Only time will tell if the 2012 enthusiasm for “Buddy” Franklin and his support cast of hawks is warranted.

Going on their 2011 numbers, you’d be forgiven for agreeing with the prevailing assessment, as once they hit their straps in last years campaign, the Hawks really got motoring.

The following charts we have prepared show* (from L – R): a)The posted handicap, b)the line price, c)the head to head price, d)the opponent, e)the final score, f)Hawthorn’s performance in respect to the handicap assigned [a)], g)the cumulative total of [f)], h)Notes on venue, i)flat stake performance against [a)] when investing to “win $100″

(Note : blue highlight indicates return from the bye, pink highlight on “result vs line” indicates Hawthorn failed to cover, pink highlight on team name indicates outright loss)

* for ease of access – line information comes courtesy of the excellent folks at footywire.

Hawks vs The Line

|| Hawthorn Hawks' Weekly Sports Investment Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 1 – 13. ||

Hawks vs The Line 2

|| Hawthorn Hawks' Weekly Sports Investment Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 14 – Finals. ||

Very strong numbers, and getting stronger closer to finals. In fact, if you remove the game that was donated to the Gold Coast Suns in round 24, the Hawks’ back half of the season was a 9-3 run.

Important points to note:

  • Hawthorn finished  with 17 wins – 8 losses against the posted bookmakers line.
  • Enjoyed a 10 – 4 run at the MCG against the posted line.
  • Never lost “head to head” when starting odds-on.
  • Accumulated 260.5 points against the spread at the peak.
  • Flat stakes punters were happy, pocketing $820 dollars at season’s end (when investing $110 to win $100).

The charts:

Hawks vs the bookie's line

|| Weekly Breakdown of Hawthorn's 2011 AFL season vs the bookmaker's line ||

A handful of times the Hawks covered the spread by less than 10.

Hawks Cumulative Graph

|| Cumulative points performance of Hawthorn's 2011 AFL season vs bookmaker's line ||

The strength of this 2011 Hawthorn team is confirmed by the trend of this cumulative graph, really ramping it up against the line as they headed into the second half of the season. It is hard to imagine anyone – whether they be workaholic sports investors like us or your average punter – missing out on making some $… provided they could do some basic form and show some selectivity.

Next team for analysis: The Gold Coast Suns.

Follow along on twitter https://twitter.com/progamblercomau

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