Saturday 27th May 2017,
Dr Sport

Sports Investment: Sydney Swans Sportsbetting Line Analysis from AFL Season 2011.

“This is big for us. It’s huge. To stop their home run and home streak is something we will remember down the track.” – Jude Bolton, after Sydney’s historic 2011 victory over Geelong.

The victory was a famous one. A Sydney team inspired by tragic circumstances triumphed over incredible odds and broke Geelong’s streak of 29 unbeaten games at home. From a sports investment perspective however – was this victory as unexpected as the bookmakers market suggested?

Welcome to the review of the Sydney Swans line performance in season 2011. Let’s take a look at what the numbers are telling us.

The following charts we have prepared show* (from L – R): a)The posted handicap, b)the line price, c)the head to head price, d)the opponent, e)the final score, f)Sydney’s performance in respect to the handicap assigned [a)], g)the cumulative total of [f)], h)Notes on venue, i)flat stake performance against [a)] when investing to “win $100″

(Note : blue highlight indicates return from the bye, pink highlight on “result vs line” indicates Sydney failed to cover, pink highlight on team name indicates outright loss)

* for ease of access – line information comes courtesy of the excellent folks at footywire.

Swans vs The Line

|| Sydney Swans' Weekly Sports Investment Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 1 – 13 ||

Over rounds 1 – 13, underperformance against the line was evened out by equal measures of outperformance, with a cumulative total sitting at +5.5.

As finals approached, Sydney put in a shocker against Richmond, only to outperform through the last 4 weeks before failing against Hawthorn at the MCG.

Swans vs the line 2

|| Sydney Swans' Weekly Sports Investment Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 14 – Finals ||

It appears as though Sydney were able to carry momentum from their famous win over Geelong through the following weeks and on to the finals.

Overall:

  • Sydney finished with 13 wins – 11 loses against the posted line.
  • A 6 – 5 record in Sydney (both ANZ stadium & SCG)
  • Won as an 8.65 underdog, and lost as a 1.27, 1.30 and 1.42 favourite.
  • A marginal $90 profit returned to flat stakes punters at seasons end (when investing $110 to win $100).
  • Cumulative points never broke +/-100 until the late season surge had it peak at +114.5 points.

Week by week performance. Notice Sydney’s 2011 season doesn’t really skew (trend) well in either direction against the line. Also interesting is 2 significant poor performances being balanced with 2 large out-performances:

Sydney Swans week by week

|| Weekly breakdown of Sydney's 2011 AFL season vs the bookmakers line ||

Sydney’s cumulative performance against the bookmakers sportsbetting line tells the same story, with a trendless graph before some late season outperformance.

Sydney vs the spread cumulative

|| Cumulative graph of Sydney's performance vs the bookmakers line, 2011 AFL season. ||

In 2011 betting markets – Sydney was a real wildcard. If sports investment was your game you really had to pick your spots and were rewarded for looking deep into the matchups for other factors to aid your decision making.

Next up, “the mighty fighting hawks”.

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