Monday 29th May 2017,
Dr Sport

Sports Investment: Collingwood Magpies Sportsbetting Line Analysis from AFL Season 2011.

“I never even thought remotely that I’d be up here saying ‘bad luck’ ” – Mick Malthouse, post grand-final address to players.

In the world of serious sports investment, it becomes necessary to track everything. Tracking Collingwood’s particulars in ’10 & ’11 was impressive…

If there’s one thing the Collingwood football club is good at (beyond cultivating an “us vs them” mentality), it’s tearing apart good opposition. After dishing out some hidings during the 2010 season (including a 56 point grand final demolition of St. Kilda), footy fans were expecting more of the same in 2011.

Nor did the ‘pies fail to deliver as 2011 kicked off – they proved to be point-spread monsters early in the season, sitting at 9-3 against the bookmakers line after 12 rounds of football – and rewarding the faithful punters in the black and white army.

The following charts we have prepared show* (from L – R): a)The posted handicap, b)the line price, c)the head to head price, d)the opponent, e)the final score, f)Collingwood’s performance in respect to the handicap assigned [a)], g)the cumulative total of [f)], h)Notes on venue, i)flat stake performance against [a)] when investing to “win $100″

(Note : blue highlight indicates return from the bye, pink highlight on “result vs line” indicates Collingwood failed to cover, pink highlight on team name indicates outright loss)

* for ease of access – line information comes courtesy of the excellent folks at footywire.

Collingwood's 2011 line betting performance

|| Collingwood Magpies' Weekly Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 1 – 14. ||

As can be the case, the status quo didn’t hold throughout the second half of the season:

Collingwood's 2011 line betting performance

|| Collingwood Magpies' Weekly Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 15 – Finals. ||

As the latter stages of the season unfolded, the ‘pies were hit with challenging lines to cover: handicaps commonly approached 70-80 points when playing away interstate. This pushed them to 5 wins -8 losses against the bookmakers posted line to finish out the season – Collingwood also failed to cover a single pointspread during the finals.

Evidence of a team faltering with form entering the finals? Or had the bookies finally caught up with us sports investors? Or were the market makers too heavy handed as Collingwood’s aura of invincibility grew?

You could make a case for all of the above.

In short, Collingwood at seasons end:

  • Went 14 wins – 11 losses against the posted line.
  • Went 10 – 7 at the MCG against the posted line.
  • Failed to cover once in the finals series
  • After peaking at +315 points, Collingwood’s accumulative total against the spread fell away to +99.5 points at seasons end.
  • Flat stake punters didn’t fare as well as they did with Geelong, although still showed a profit; if only $190 at seasons conclusion. (when investing $110 to win $100).

The charts:

Collingwood week by week vs the spread.

|| Weekly performance breakdown of Collingwood's vs the bookmakers line, 2011 AFL season. ||

Collingwood vs the bookmakers line cumulative.

|| Cumulative graph of Collingwood's performance vs the bookmaker's line, 2011 AFL season. ||

The fall away vs the bookmakers line is interesting, and makes stark reading against Geelong’s charts. Interesting tale of the tape for sports investment students and concerned punters.

Next up for analysis, the Sydney Swans.

Follow along on twitter https://twitter.com/progamblercomau

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