Monday 24th July 2017,
Dr Sport

Sports Investment: Geelong Cats Sportsbetting Line Analysis From AFL Season 2011.

“Geelong goes from handbaggers to invincibles” – Herald Sun, October 2nd, 2011.

With the capture of the 2011 Premiership, Geelong capped off a fantastic 2011 in which they were able to overcome preseason flag favourites Collingwood a total of 3 times, continue to crush teams at the fortress that is Skilled Stadium (with one notable exception), and consistently unleash that awesome brand of football that showcases one of the best-skilled, well-drilled teams in the competition. Result – 2011 Premiers, and one of the key elements in our 2011 AFL sports investment program.

As such, it is only fitting that Geelong are the first team to be covered in our series of posts detailing individual teams line analysis of the 2011 AFL Premiership Season.

The following charts we have prepared show* (from L – R): a)The posted handicap, b)the line price, c)the head to head price, d)the opponent, e)the final score, f)Geelong’s performance in respect to the handicap assigned [a)], g)the cumulative total of [f)], h)Notes on venue, i)flat stake performance against [a)] when investing to “win $100”

(Note : blue highlight indicates return from the bye, pink highlight on “result vs line” indicates Geelong failed to cover, pink highlight on team name indicates outright loss)

* for ease of access – line information comes courtesy of the excellent folks at footywire

Geelong's 2011 line betting performance

|| Geelong Cats Weekly Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 1-13. ||

Geelong's 2011 line betting performance

|| Geelong Cats Weekly Performance vs "The Line" for 2011, Rounds 14-Finals. ||

As subscribers to our service in 2011 would remember, we made healthy returns investing with Geelong on many occasions throughout 2011. As is obvious in the line analysis, even the average punting Geelong supporter would have profited handsomely by riding the Geelong train as they:

  • Go 19 wins – 6 losses against the posted line over the season and finals.
  • Go 5 wins – 1 loss at home against the posted line.
  • Covered the line in every final.
  • Accumulate +388.5 points over the entire season vs the posted line.
  • Flat betting investing $110 to win $100 profited $1240 over the season.

The results speak for themselves really, as do the following charts.

The top chart illustrates Geelong’s ongoing weekly outperformance against the bookmakers 1.92 handicap line over season 2011

The second chart is the cumulative points performance of Geelong over the course of the 2011 AFL season. (essentially the same information expressed cumulatively).

Excellent team to go with.

Geelong 2011 weekly performance against the bookmakers posted line.

|| Weekly performance breakdown of Geelong vs the bookmakers line, 2011 AFL season. ||

Cumulative Geelong points vs the line AFL 2011

|| Cumulative graph of Geelong's performance vs the bookmakers line, 2011 AFL season. ||

Next, the ‘Pies.

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