“Assume nothing, test everything” – James Patterson.
Profitability. Maximising this factor drives basically every wagering decision our team makes.
And profitability plays a part in the following story… concerning why in 2007 (and 2007 only) we “gave up” on AFL wagering, only for us to realise our foolishness – and embrace its return in 2008 and every year since.
…It is our hope that our insightful readers can take something away from this short post on why, sometimes, “it’s not all about the profit”.
You see, members of this site will come to understand that our heavy MLB focus – and our belief that it should be at the core of any serious sport investing strategy – affects the lengths at which we can analyse AFL. We don’t apologise for that.
This is because MLB (commencing March 28th in 2012) basically runs concurrently with the AFL season (commencing March 24th 2012) every year here in Australia. It causes a trade off each time as we are forced to allocate resources to an expanding AFL – both geographically and technically – that requires more analysis as seasons pass. In 2012 alone we add to our workload with Greater Western Sydney joining the league.
That being the case with the AFL/MLB face-off, at the close of the 2006 investment year we were reeling from the workload and decided to “pass” on AFL in 2007 for fear of it impacting on our MLB success. It was more of an experiment than a blackout – we still kept a very close eye on the AFL, but devoted our analysis work entirely to MLB and invested our clients there, and had a serviceable season as we have come to expect.
But we all agreed; we missed AFL majorly. 2007 was a reasonable year for us financially, but without AFL, it just wasn’t the same for our fund. We actually missed the work. It felt like being an Adelaide Crows supporter or something. It just wasn’t right.
As soon as this became clear to us, AFL was thrust back in the mix for 2008, and we all agreed internally, we would manage the workload because we love it, and when you love doing something – that old cliche about it not being work anymore?… well, we found it to be true.
AFL was, and is, here to stay 😉
Subsequently we had a brilliant 2008 posting up a +176.55% ROI at years end, as $10,000 of initial capital cashed out at $27,655. AFL did contribute somewhat to that result, but once again a large portion of our 2008 profits came from bases… But most importantly, we had managed to outsource certain statistical tasks and create a manageable workflow that lessened headaches and enabled us to add to profitability. Things didn’t have to be as bad as 2006 we happily discovered.
The resumption of AFL handicapping was more about wellbeing than profitability. With two ‘Aussies’ on deck at professionalgambler.com.au, we are passionate and committed sports investors. It was a commitment to the art, science and challenge of wagering on a sport we love – more than a commitment to ROI – that lead to its reinstatement.
And 2009, 2010 and 2011 saw the incorporation of AFL continue smoothly, and returns held up well throughout.
As we dig into some preseason AFL videos this week, the anticipation of sinking out teeth into the 2012 season proper is energising.
Here’s to a great season ahead.
[As a side note, NFL/NCAAF are also “must include” schedules to wager into for a few reasons… 1)The schedules are deep, making it an almost 7-days a week wagering cycle, 2)both forms of American football also have robust totals markets/and the always attractive “teaser” bet type, and 3)aside from the first few months of NHL, nothing competes with American football for our attention, with both forms in full swing during the AFL/MLB off season.
Current coverage for members is : AFL, MLB, NFL/NCAAF, NHL, PGA.]
Follow along on twitter https://twitter.com/progamblercomau
Investing in sports betting markets daily when our systems say so: 2008: +176.5%, | 2009: +8.6%, | 2010: +46.85%, | 2011: +78.10% | 2012 : in progress |
Feel free to email us for a free, no-obligation 2 week trial, or with any questions.
email: drsportgambler @ gmail.com