“Expect the Unexpected” – Various.
Picture the scene.
You have committed to research, selected a play from your universe of options available, and invest, placing what you think is a positive expectation wager. Then, it gets the pants beaten off it. Not loses, but tanks.
Many recreational gamblers (if not nearly all), will take it to heart and become emotionally affected by the outcome. Maybe hindsight bias or recency bias may take root and enhance the negative spell of the emotions they are feeling… Chasing may begin in an attempt to replace the despair of losing with the thrill of a win. If any further losses result, this will rub salt into the wounds and the chase is on and ruin is all but ensured.
This is definitely not accurate thinking, nor is it big picture thinking. It is something that needs to be addressed.
A familiar, but counter-intuitive message around this site is you need to get comfortable with losing if you aim to become a successful in this endeavour. Losing is a major part (over 40% at least when betting agains point spread lines) of this sports investment game. Whether you had a loser that just failed in overtime or by way of a shootout, or a loser that tanked horribly (such as the Boston Bruins in NHL on Wednesday for us), the quicker you can package up the loss, take whatever numbers and ratings you can from it and then head on to analysis of the next game – the better.
Sporting champions, do their best to not let one outcome affect them leading into the next game, as there is simply nothing to be gained from doing so. In your sports investing, aim to do the same – learn from the outcome but don’t dwell on it – your next position is already here and it needs analysis.
Because sometimes, a team just doesn’t show up. hey can have a really rough day and it has nothing to do with your numbers being off, or your system failing, it’s merely a result that was unexpected. A single result. This is not a situation that is totally unexpected when you are wagering over 400 times per year.
If you are position sizing in a responsible way, like I can only hope you all are, you should be able to readily adopt a more professional mindset. As a way to prove a point: remember the pain of that position that lost you a few units back in 2009? No, and I don’t either. The same will be said about this position eventually, so why not step into that mindset now?
The wealth of serious and proven sports investing experience in our team is edging close to 50+ years – and for us, losses are pragmatically dealt with as they are an unavoidable part of progress. It’s a good frame of mind to approach with in your own sports wagering.
Some points to assist in this thinking.
1. Bet smaller. 98% of people wager too heavily for their accounts and income levels. Look at 5% of your bankroll as an extreme maximum sports betting wager, but ideally, 2-4% of bankroll would be good regular amounts to wager.
2. Allow for some time between bets. Day or days apart is good. The urge to recoup (chase) will lessen through the passing of time. Don’t let a loss prompt you to bet. Let strategy dictate this.
3. Don’t dismiss or go against a team just because they have failed for you. No team is as poor as they were during a bad loss, just as no team is as reliable as they appeared during a resounding win.
4. Track your bets on some software (spreadsheets are ideal), or physically for a year. Get a handle on what you are wagering, how your analysis is rewarding you. Most important is understanding the trending nature of sports investment returns over the year. You’ll be amazed what information well tracked can reveal to you.
5. Humans are at their most illogical and irrational when under pressure. Never wager under pressure.
6. Look to create a system. It will give you more confidence than you realise.
Hope this helps.
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Investing in sports betting markets daily when our systems say so: 2008: +176.5%, | 2009: +8.6%, | 2010: +46.85%, | 2011: +78.10% | 2012 : in progress |
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email: drsportgambler @ gmail.com